Through two weeks of the Bundesliga season, two of the top four favorites — RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen — are without a victory. Leipzig has settled for consecutive draws, while Leverkusen has struggled to finish off scoring chances and lost both of its matches to Borussia Dortmund and Augsburg.
Bayern Munich has scored eight goals scored and allowed one in two comfortable wins, with Dortmund needing three late goals to come back and beat Freiburg in a 3-1 triumph last Friday. That means both of the title favorites have taken six from six and will be favorites to win yet again this weekend.
Leverkusen hosts Hoffenheim as it looks for its first points of the season, while Leipzig has a difficult road trip to Union Berlin in search of its first victory.
That said, here are my three best bets for the latest Bundesliga slate.
Bundesliga Best Bets
Augsburg vs. Mainz
| Augsburg Odds | +250 |
| Mainz Odds | +105 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-116 / -104) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Augsburg pulled off a shock road victory at Bayer Leverkusen last weekend, but the club continues to be due for a ton of regression. As a result, the market has given it too much respect with this line.
Mainz had trouble creating scoring chances, but Augsburg features one of the league's worst defenses. In the second half of the 2021-22 season, Augsburg had the second worst xG difference of any team. Only Arminia Bielefeld was worse and it was relegated from the German top flight.
Mainz, which had back-to-back solid performances, has the exact kind of defense that will prevent the clear scoring opportunities Augsburg's extreme counterattacking profile relies on.
Augsburg's attack relied heavily on crosses, which was an area the Mainz defense struggled. However, it also relies on creating big opportunities and Mainz's defense allowed fewer than any team last season.
My projections make Mainz a -110 moneyline favorite and this is a great time to sell high on Augsburg, which should be a relegation contender after a big upset win. I'd play Mainz ML at anything plus money.
By The Numbers
- 1st — Mainz allowed the fewest big scoring chances in the Bundesliga last season.
- 18th — Augsburg completed the fewest progressive passes in the league last campaign, which is a sign of how direct it was in carrying the ball or passing it up the pitch using quick counterattacks.
Dabbundo's Pick: Mainz ML (+100 or better)
Stuttgart vs. Freiburg
| Stuttgart Odds | +165 |
| Freiburg Odds | +160 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-136/ +112) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Freiburg and Stuttgart were comparable teams last season when you look at the underlying numbers, but the visiting side ran better in close games via set pieces and finishingvariance. That accounted for the difference in the table betweenthe clubs, but not the difference in true team talent.
Because of that, Freiburg is a toss-up to win this on the road, which implies it's a better team than Stuttgart. I'm not at all convinced Freiburg won't be regressing in the upcoming season. When you look at the squad, Freiburg did add some depth, but it's hard to see it repeating that level of xG over-performance and set-piece dominance with mostly the same starting lineup.
Freiburg scored more goals off set pieces than anyone by five goals and over -performed its xG by as much as any team except three. Stuttgart was the exact opposite, as it had a -18 goal difference despite just a -6 xGDiff overall.
Stuttgart dealt injuries and bad variance, but on true talent, it's only marginally worse than Freiburg. For that reason, I'll back it at home on a Draw No Bet wager at -115 or better.
By The Numbers
- 0.34 — Freiburg’s ratio of xG created on set pieces versus open play was by far the largest in the Bundesliga last season.
- -11.2 — Stuttgart had unsustainably bad goalkeeping play a campaign ago that resulted in conceding way more goals than it should have.
Dabbundo's Pick: Stuttgart — Draw No Bet (-100)
Dortmund vs. Werder Bremen
| Dortmund Odds | -280 |
| Bremen Odds | +650 |
| Draw | +440 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-102 / -118) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Dortmund has scored four goals and won both its matches, but the attack has looked anything but right. The Black and Yellows benefitted from defensive and goalkeeper miscues for its first two goals of the year and needed late magic to rescue the victory against Freiburg.
On the balance of chances, Dortmund could easily have just two points and two draws instead of the perfect six points it has up to this point.
The xG tally (2.9-2.2 edge) through two matches is a solid return, but not nearly as good as the 4-1 goal difference would make you think. Dortmund had few ideas on how to create clear scoring chances against Freiburg until it melted down late.
Dortmund did improve its set-piece defense considerably under manager Edin Terzić, as I wrote last week, but the club is still are overinflated in the market following those two victories.
Bremen had the best underlying numbers in a highly competitive 2. Bundesliga last season and should have won the league. Its play has translated well thus far in two road games against Wolfsburg and at home against Stuttgart.
Most importantly, Bremen's defense was the best in the second tier last campaign and through two fixtures, it has held opponents to 2.5 xGA, yet conceded four goals. The attack will not continue to score goals at the rate it has thus far (four goals from 1.5 xG), but the defensive solidity and field-tilt numbers suggest it's a cut above the Bundesliga relegation tier.
I'd play Werder Bremen getting +1.5 goals via the Asian Handicap and the total staying under 3.5 goals as the Dortmund attack continues to struggle with the early season turnover and remains due for finishing regression from last season.
Anthony Modeste is an improvement for the Black and Yellows, but while Karim Adeyemi and Sebastien Haller are out, it's hard to see where the goals come from in this affair.
By The Numbers
- 2nd — Despite the struggles on set pieces, Dortmund did have the second-best defense by xGA in Germany last season.
- 1st — Werder Bremen clearly had the best defense in the 2. Bundesliga by xGA, but ran poorly with variance to not win the league late in the campaign.
Dabbundo's Pick: Werder Bremen +1.5 (-110) | Total Under 3.5 Goals (-118)
