Three of the projected top four Bundesliga clubsdropped points last weekend, with Bayern Munich drawing Union Berlin; Bayer Leverkusen losing to Freiburg; and, RB Leipzig suffering a 4-0 defeat against Eintracht Frankfurt.
Given the struggles of Leipzig, the side fired manager Domenico Tedesco and brought in former Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund manager Marco Rose to manage the club.
Just two teams are without a win through five matches. And while Bochum isn't much of a surprise, Wolfsburg surely is. Two draws, three defeats and a 16th rank in expected goal difference is sounding the alarm for a club that was in the Champions League just last season.
This latest slate of matches features RB Leipzig hosting Dortmund in the Rose revenge match, plus Frankfurt hosts Wolfsburg. Finally, we have Bayern looking to find a win against Stuttgart after consecutive league draws.
That said, here are my three best bets for the Bundesliga slate.
Our 3 Bundesliga Best Bets
Frankfurt vs. Wolfsburg
| Frankfurt Odds | -105 |
| Wolfsburg Odds | +245 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-150 / +125) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Frankfurt had a clear plan of creating chances in years past with star man Filip Kostic as a wing back. The system was built on progressing the ball into positions for him to successfully deliver crosses. No player in Europe's top-five leagues crossed more into the penalty area than Kostic in the last three seasons.
He is gone now, though, and Frankfurt doesn't really have an answer to supplement the loss of attacking production. It was a below-average team last season and tailed off considerably in the second half. Since the new season began, Frankfurt has really struggled to create chances until last Saturday's 4-0 pasting of Leipzig.
The reliance on direct attacking play doesn't match up great with a Wolfsburg defense that is third in passes per defensive action. Frankfurt hasn't been good at playing through opposition pressure, so I'm more inclined to believe the win against Leipzig and blowout defeat to Bayern were opposite extremes and that neither is indicative of how good the team really is at the moment.
This is a great buy-low spot on Wolfsburg, even though its underlying numbers are extremely worrying at this point. Last season, Wolfsburg won its first four Bundesliga matches with good underlying numbers before regressing to finish in the middle of the table. This season might just be the opposite.
Before the season, this would have been lined closer to Pick’em and I'm buying low on Wolfsburg.
By The Numbers
- -1.23 — Wolfsburg has had a dismal start to after being an average team last season with this xG difference per match.
- 2nd — Frankfurt has the second-highest direct attacking speed in the Bundesliga.
Dabbundo's Pick: Wolfsburg +0.5 (-110)
RB Leipzig vs. Dortmund
| Leipzig Odds | +140 |
| Dortmund Odds | +170 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-180 / +145) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
The biggest game of the weekend features teams headed in opposite directions. Despite its struggles, Leipzig is a home favorite and will have Rose in charge against the club that sacked him last year.
It's weird to see a Dortmund side that’s not vastly over-performing its xG number. The Black and Yellows have eight goals from 8.4 xG after being one of the hottest finishing teams in Europe each of the last two seasons.
The defense has also considerably cleaned up the errors that plagued it in seasons past. The improvements in defensive midfield and the addition of Nico Schlotterbeck has the defense better. The 4.3 xGA in five league matches is excellent.
Leipzig's defense has mostly been unlucky, conceding nine from six xG overall. It cost Tedesco his job after Shakhtar Donetsk scored four goals on five shots in their Champions League match.
The market hasn't quite adjusted to Dortmund unders yet either, so I'm going to keep betting them. I have Leizpig as a slightly worse team, but once you factor in home field, it gets the club to the marginal favorite it is as of writing.
My projections make the total 2.78 goals, though, so I am holding my nose and betting under three goals via the Asian Handicap numbers.
Dortmund's attack isn't nearly as efficient with Anthony Modeste leading the line and Leipzig will prioritize defensive improvements and more possession with Rose in charge.
By The Numbers
- 32 — When you compare total goals scored in Dortmund matches to xG, you come up with about this number if extra goals from finishing variance and goalkeeping effects.
- 1 — Total goals conceded from the two sides on set pieces combined this season.
Dabbundo's Pick: Total Under 3 Goals (-110)
Freiburg vs. Gladbach
| Freiburg Odds | +100 |
| Gladbach Odds | +240 |
| Draw | +255 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-175 / +145) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Freiburg is in an unfamiliar position in the Bundesliga table after five matches, with four wins and a loss as it sits atop the table.
When these teams met last season, Freiburg scored nine goals on three xG overall. This makes this a prime revenge spot for an improved Borussia Mönchengladbach side that’s still a top-six offense going forward.
Gladbach earned a result against Bayern, plus it’s conceding less than one NPxG in three of its five matches. The Foals have a +0.9 xG difference per outing in the four games not against Bayern. Goalkeeper Yann Sommer recently broke a Bundesliga record in saves against Bayern.
The Foals only loss came last week to Mainz in a game that Gladbach won the xG by a 1.4-0.9 margin, while conceded off an excellent free kick from the visitors. That was despite a controversial Gladbach red card to center back Ko Itakura. He's suspended for this match, but the Foals seem to have bought in defensively after a porous season under manager Adi Hütter.
My projections have Gladbach as the slightly better team despite all the defensive issues it has had. Factor in home-field advantage and the result is a marginal Freiburg favorite, but not enough to be even money on the moneyline.
So, this a great sell-high spot on Freiburg's excellent start to the Bundesliga campaign.
By The Numbers
- 57.7 — Despite a 10th-placed finish last year, Gladbach finished in fifth with this many xG created.
- 14th — Freiburg ranks in this spot when it comes to in open-play shots conceded.
Dabbundo's Pick: Gladbach +0.5 (-125 or better)
