Borussia Dortmund vs. Fortuna Dusseldorf Odds and Picks
| Dortmund odds | -305 (BET NOW) |
| Dusseldorf odds | +700 (BET NOW) |
| Draw odds | +440 (BET NOW) |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-148/+118) (BET NOW) |
| Time | Saturday, 9:30 a.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
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Two teams at opposite ends of the Bundesliga pecking order will do battle on Saturday morning.
Borussia Dortmund seems destined to finish in second place, four points ahead of RB Leipzig but seven points behind Bayern Munich, though their underlying metrics suggest they should be a little bit further down the table. BVB have outscored their expected goals by 22 in 30 games so far in 2019-20.
Dusseldorf are basically right where they belong, in 16th place and staring down a potential playoff with the third-place team from the second division to see who gets the honor of playing in the Bundesliga in 2020-21.
On paper, this is a mismatch.
| Dusseldorf | Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for per game | 1.1 | 2.7 |
| Expected goals for per game | 1.15 | 1.81 |
| Goals against per game | 2 | 1.17 |
| Expected goals against per game | 2.07 | 1.19 |
| Total goals per game | 3.1 | 3.87 |
| Total expected goals per game | 3.21 | 3 |
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Even though Dortmund have been fortunate to put up their terrific offensive numbers in 2019-20, they should have a huge edge going forward on Saturday.
Dusseldorf's defense has improved over the last couple of games but for they've been shambolic in front of their own net for most of the season, ranking dead last in expected goals allowed in 2019-20.
I'd be a little weary backing BVB against a sturdier defense, but I see no reason to argue with their odds against Dusseldorf. When you convert the three-way moneyline to implied probability this is what you get:
- Dortmund: 70.8%
- Draw: 17.4%
- Dusseldorf: 11.8%
Instead of laying the big moneyline with Dortmund, I think there's plenty more value taking them on the alternate spread. Considering that Dusseldorf desperately needs points to stay out of the automatic relegation zone, I'm expecting this match will open up at some point. Dortmund is -375 to score first and if they do, Dusseldorf will need to take more chances to hunt for the equalizer.
