Matchweek 30 of the 2019-20 Bundesliga season will draw to a close on Sunday with a three-match card featuring Werder Bremen vs. Wolfsburg, Schalke vs. Union Berlin and Augsburg vs. Koln.
None of these matches would be considered "headliners" but the money you win on a match featuring two mid-table teams in the Bundesliga is just as green as the money you win in the Champions League Final.
That being said, let's get to our betting breakdowns for Sunday:
Brad Cunningham
Werder Bremen vs. Wolfsburg
7:30 a.m. ET, FS1
The streak continues for Werder Bremen after their mid-week loss to Frankfurt. Die Werderaner hasn't won a game at home in 275 days, with only one win at the Weser Stadium this season.
Weder Bremen is three points below Fortuna Dusseldorf for the relegation playoff spot and can't afford to drop any more points. However, things have not gone well for Die Werderaner when they face the top of the table.
Against the top six teams in the league, Werder Bremen have only managed to earn six of a possible 30 points. They've been dominated in those 10 matchups, shown by a -14.37 expected goal differential.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
One the main reason's Werder Bremen have struggled this season is creating chances. Since the Bundesliga returned to play, Die Werdernaner have only created one big chance (35% probability or higher) in five matches.
This has been the case for Werder Bremen all season long as they have a Bundesliga worst 1.01 xGF per game. It will be tough sledding for Die Werdernaner to get a result going up against one of the best defensive teams in the Bundesliga.
Wolfsburg have been up and down since the Bundesliga returned winning twice on the road, but losing twice at home. Die Wölfe have been on fire away from Volkswagen Arena over their last five matches earning 10 of a possible 12 points and accumulating 11.35 xGF in the process.
Wolfsburg is one of the best defensive teams in the Bundesliga ranking third in xGA. Additionally, they've only allowed 27 big scoring chances from non-penalty situations, which is the lowest in the Bundesliga.
Werder Bremen's inept offense will no doubt have a difficult time creating high quality chances against Wolfsburg's stellar defense. I have the expected goals at:
- Werder Bremen: 0.95 xG
- Wolfsburg: 1.56 xG
I have a hard time seeing how Werder Bremen are even going to score in this game, given Wolfsburg's stellar defense and away form as of late. I am backing Die Wölfe to get all three points in this match.
Jeremy Pond
Schalke at Union Berlin
9:30 a.m. ET, FS1
Talk about two teams in terrible form.
Schalke, currently in 10th place in the standings, have lost six of their last seven Bundesliga matches and are winless in their last 11 league tilts. The club’s last win came back on January 17 against Borussia Monchengladbach.
On the other side, Union Berlin has been no better, going winless in their last six matches and compiling a record of 3-9-3 record over the course of their last 15 games. Combined, Schalke and Union Berlin are 0-9-3 in their last 12 matches.
Offensively, these are two of the worst teams in the league when it comes to finding the back of the net. Schalke is 17th out of 18 clubs in expected goals (31.74) this season and has been shut out in six of its last eight league contests. Union Berlin has been only slightly better in the statistical category, sitting in 14th place with 35.03 expected goals.
I can’t see much happening for either side in each other’s defensive thirds, so I am backing the total going under the number as my top play. The total has been under 2.5 goals in eight of Union Berlin’s last 10 home contests, which gives me even more confidence about this selection.
If you’re looking for an outright play, put a little on the draw at +230 or better.
Anthony Dabbundo
Schalke at Union Berlin
9:30 a.m. ET, FS1
Sunday morning’s matchup between 10th-place Schalke and 14th-place Union Berlin features the two worst teams in the Bundesliga based on current form.
In eight combined matches since the league returned, Schalke and Union have combined for exactly one point. Schalke have lost four in a row, while Berlin picked up a draw against Mainz, surrounded by three uncompetitive losses by multiple goals.
Defensive issues aside, it’s been goal-scoring that has been the predominant issue for both sides. Bundesliga newcomers Union Berlin have slid down to 16th in expected goals for this year, while Schalke sit 17th. Both average barely more than 1.0 xGF per game.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Union have scored just two goals in its last four matches and created just 2.2 xG. Entering Sunday, Union is three points clear of Dusseldorf for 16th, so any point would be crucial entering the final four matches as they try to avoid being relegated straight back to the German second division.
After a promising start to the season, Schalke have lacked continuity, energy and form since returning from the two month layoff. There are rumors circulating that manager David Wagner has lost the locker room, and the results on the pitch indicate that may be true.
Schalke have scored one goal in four matches, failed to generate more than 0.8 xG in any of those games, and have been outplayed by bottom six teams Werder Bremen, Dusseldorf and Augsburg.
While Schalke’s defense has struggled of late, conceding four to Dortmund, two to Dusseldorf and three to Augsburg, their season-long numbers are above average.
Schalke rank seventh with 41.8 xGA and have defended corners well, which is a major Union strength in attack, as Die Eisernen have scored eight goals off corners this season. Schalke’s ability to keep Union off the board, while also being inept in attack themselves makes for a low-scoring battle.
Both teams are in such bad form that I can’t reasonably bet on either of them to come out with a win here. When Schalke has trailed this season, they have scored five goals while conceding the next goal 19 times. For Union, that gap is seven for and 21 against. Neither team is good at playing from behind, and that’s why I see value on a game prop here.
I don’t envision a high-scoring affair, but instead of taking the Under 2.5 with extra juice, I’ll take the no option on both teams to score, thinking if one team does score, it will be difficult for the trailing side to break them down and get on the board themselves.
Michael Leboff
Augsburg vs. Koln
12 p.m. ET, FS1
Two below-average teams with not all that much to play for will bring Matchweek 30 of the Bundesliga to a close on Sunday afternoon.
In their eight combined matches since Germany's top division resumed play, FC Koln and Augsburg have one win, four losses and three draws. It's not like they've played the cream of the crop either, with just one of those eight matches coming against top-five opposition.
It was predictable that Koln and Augsburg — two teams basically stuck in no man's land in the middle of the table — would come out of the gates flat. That being said, Koln vs. Augsburg is an island game and is being broadcast on FS1, so there should be a decent handle for a match that would have flown under the radar in different circumstances.
Only three points separate 12th-place Koln from 13th-place Augsburg and their statistical profiles are also pretty similar:
| Koln | Augsburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for per game | 1.59 | 1.38 |
| Expected goals for per game | 1.6 | 1.38 |
| Goals against per game | 1.93 | 1.93 |
| Expected goals against per game | 1.54 | 1.77 |
| Total goals per game | 3.52 | 3.31 |
| Total expected goals per game | 3.14 | 3.15 |
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
It's no surprise that the market is making this match out to be a relative toss up. When you convert the above odds to implied probability, this is what you get:
- Koln: 38.8%
- Draw: 26.9%
- Augsburg: 34.3%
While I don't think there's that much value on the three-way moneyline, I do think the over/under is worth exploring. Considering that this match will be played in a low-pressure environment, neither team really has anything to gain or lose this season, I think it could be a free-flowing contest.
There is the chance that the two sides mail it in and play out a snoozefest, but neither of these teams are defensive stalwarts so I'm fine taking a chance on this match featuring some crooked numbers.
Even though there have only been eight total goals scored in Augsburg's four matches since the break, Koln's last four games have featured 18 total goals and 76% of Die Geißböcke contests this season have soared over 2.5 goals.
Neither of these two teams will be confused with Bayern Munich on attack, but they both feature serviceable offenses with Koln ranking eighth in the Bundesliga in expected goals for and Augsburg sitting 12th in the same category.
Additionally, Augsburg's leaky defense, which ranks sixth-worst in terms of xG against this season, should provide plenty of opportunities for Koln to find the back of the net and hopefully open things up.
At the time of writing the over 2.5 is juiced to -139, and I think that's a sensible wager, but if this match does open up I think we could see plenty more scoring than that. These two teams typically see 3.15 expected goals per match, so I have no problem having a flutter on the alternate total of over 3.5 at a bigger price.
