Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig Odds
| Leverkusen Odds | +190 |
| RB Leipzig Odds | +125 |
| Draw | +270 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-175 / +140) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 1:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen have the Bundesliga top four race and a potential berth in the Champions League on the line Sunday when they sides meet in a crucial matchup.
Leverkusen is clinging to a one-point edge over Leipzig, with Freiburg chasing close behind both to grab the two spots behind Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund.
Leipzig is in a tricky spot off its road victory at Atalanta on Thursday in the Europa League, which is a competition it’s now favored to win. Leverkusen was held to a road draw at Bochum last weekend and has been in shaky form of late with just three wins in its last nine matches across all competitions.
Leipzig is in its best form of the season of late, but it’s now overvalued and in a flat spot on the road. Despite the over-performance, I'm playing on Leverkusen to get a result in this contest.
Bayer Leverkusen Dealing With Regression
Leverkusen began the first half of the season in excellent form and was running ridiculously well in front of the opponents’ goal. The attack has regressed a bit in recent weeks though, as it hasn’t been able to sustain finishing 40% above their expected goals numbers.
For the year, Leverkusen has turned 53.1 xG into 68 total goals, which makes it the second biggest over-performers in all of Germany behind Dortmund. That's still an unsustainable rate of finishing, but it's come down to about 28% over expected this season.
The attack is heavily reliant on transition and counterattacking opportunities, which is a major reason it torched Leipzig in the first meeting between the clubs. Leipzig has improved its transition defense considerably under new manager Domenico Tedesco, but its defense has also been quite fortunate to not concede more goals.
RB Leipzig Facing Tough Road Matchup
Leipzig fired Jesse Marsch in the fall because its defense was conceding too many goals and big scoring chances, sending its offense into a finishing funk and failing to produce enough results. The Red Bulls have gotten better under Tedesco, but a lot of the improvements are really just variance.
Since Dec. 1, Leipzig has a +0.5 xG difference per 90 minutes in the German top flight, but its actual goal difference per 90 minutes is all the way at +1.23 in the metric. That's because the defense is still conceding chances, especially away from home, but is not being punished by them.
The defense is yielding enough chances to allow about 1.2 goals per match, but it has actually only conceded 0.8 goals/90 minutes in that time frame. Leverkusen actually has better underlying numbers in that same time frame (+1.02 xGD per 90/minutes), but hasn’t performed to that level in terms of results because of its attacking finishing regression
Leipzig is at its best when it’s able to effectively control possession and create attacking overloads with its attackers that are best with the ball at their feet. Leverkusen matches up pretty well because its defensive press springs counterattacking opportunities up the wings behind the attacking full backs that Leipzig uses.
Betting Analysis & Pick
My Bundesliga projections have this match as a tossup. Even though Leipzig was a team underperforming and undervalued most of the season and Leverkusen was the overrated and over-performing squad, the market has overcorrected for that here.
Even though Leipzig is the better team, the matchup suits Leverkusen's pace on the counter on home soil, I can't make them any worse than +105 on the Draw No Bet line.
For that reason, I'm backing a team I've spent most of the season fading and taking Bayer Leverkusen on the Draw No Bet wager at +120 odds.
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen — Draw No Bet (+120)
