Bundesliga Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bayer Leverkusen vs. Wolfsburg Betting Preview (Oct. 30)

Leverkusen vs. Wolfsburg Odds

The Bundesliga didn't have any midweek matches, but most of the league participated in the DFB-Pokal on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wolfsburg had the week off, having been eliminated back in early August by fourth-tier Preussen Munster, while Bayer Leverkusen lost on Wednesday to second-tier Karlsuher.

Bayer Leverkusen and Wolfsburg enter Saturday's matchup trending in opposite directions since the league season began, with Wolfsburg winning none of its three Champions League matches and losing four consecutive games in the Bundesliga.

Meanwhile, Leverkusen is unbeaten in the Europa League, has two league losses all season to Dortmund and Bayern and positioned itself inside the top four with more than 25% of the Bundesliga season complete.

This is an excellent buy-low spot on Wolfsburg, with them significantly underperforming their attacking offensive metrics and Leverkusen significantly over-performing its own.

The Wolves are undervalued to take at least a point as a road underdog and have a real shot to win this match.

Lucky Bayer Leverkusen Sitting in Top Four

I've been fading Leverkusen for weeks and will continue to do so until they're more properly priced in the market. They sit fourth in the Bundesliga table despite sitting 10th in the expected goal difference (xGDiff) table. The major reason for the over-performance has been the attack, which has scored 23 goals compared to 14 expected.

This is very similar to how Leverkusen started last season, when a red-hot finishing run saw them in first place in the Bundesliga, challenging Bayern, 10 games into the season. Then the Bavarian giants beat Leverkusen, which was the beginning of its downturn.

This season, Bayern smashed Leverkusen 5-1, and then Leverkusen blew an undeserved 2-0 lead for a fortunate 2-2 tie with Koln in its last match. Leverkusen still allowed more big scoring chances than it created. It allowed more total chances and salvaged the points on the road.

Next up is one of the best defenses in the Bundesliga, one that doesn't press much and won't allow Leverkusen to break into space where its attack is most dangerous.

When playing at 11-on-11 and with the match tied, Leverkusen has a -0.02 xGDiff per 90 minutes and yet is actually +1.06. Most of the over-performance relative to xG has come early in games, which enables them to go ahead and forces opponents' to play into their hands by absorbing pressure and playing in behind into space on the counter.

The longer this game is tied, Wolfsburg has been the better team this season in that game state.

Wolfsburg Due for Improved Results

Despite its poor attacking record in recent matches, Wolfsburg has been more unlucky than bad. The Wolves have produced five xG in their last three Bundesliga matches — 1.3 against Gladbach, 1.8 against Union Berlin and 1.9 against Freiburg. Yet Wolfsburg has only scored one actual goal in that same time frame.

Wolfsburg is due for some positive offensive regression, given it has only scored nine league goals all year from 14.7 xG. Wolfsburg ranks sixth in xG per 90 but just 13th in goals per 90. The expected number has been proven to be more predictive and a better indicator of how good the team has been this year and will be going forward.

Wolfsburg hasn't created many high-quality chances, but given its crossing ability and ball progression numbers, it's likely that big-scoring chances are coming its way in the future. The Wolves are seventh in shots per 90, seventh in entries into the penalty area and third in crosses into the box.

Defensively, Wolfsburg have been one of the Bundesliga's best defenses year after year and that remains the case in 2021-22. The Wolves have allowed the second-fewest box entries and crosses into the penalty area, while also allowing the third-fewest shots and fourth-fewest xG against in the German top flight.

Betting Analysis & Pick

After Wolfsburg won its first four games of the 2021-22 season and roared to the lead in the Bundesliga, it became quite overvalued in the betting market. Now, after four straight losses and an eight-match winless run in all competitions, the market is overreacting.

Leverkusen is now overinflated in the market based on recent results, as my projections suggest it should be closer to +140 favorites instead of the current -105 line. Leverkusen's superior goal difference and league position is a mirage once you look at the expected goal differences and you could make an argument Wolfsburg is actually the better team in this game.  

Anything -140 or better is good value on Wolfsburg to get at least a point in this game, and anything +250 or better is worth a half-unit add on the moneyline as Wolfsburg looks to steal three points against an overrated and regression-bound Leverkusen.

Pick: Wolfsburg +0.5 (-140 or better) | Wolfsburg ML (+250 or better)