Bundesliga Odds, Picks, Predictions: Best Bets for Weekend Slate

Both Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund dropped points in the Bundesliga title race against teams in the bottom half of the table. Bayern settled for a listless 1-1 draw with Hoffenheim, while Dortmund blew both a 2-0 and 3-2 lead in the waning moments against 10-man Stuttgart and finished with a 3-3 draw. The Bavarians lead sits at two points with six matches to play and both Dortmund and Bayern will be tested this weekend in the nine-game league slate. Bayern travels to surging Mainz, while Dortmund hosts Eintracht Frankfurt, who is out of form, but always poses a threat through breakout striker Randal Kolo Muani.

Bayer Leverkusen's improved form has them in the Europa League semifinal and challenging for the top four. They'll need to beat RB Leipzig at home in the biggest match of the weekend if they want any chance of erasing the seven-point gap. Union Berlin has been dropping points repeatedly lately as the goals have dried up and now have a tricky visit to Borussia Monchengladbach.

Here are my three best bets for this weekend's Bundesliga slate:

Bundesliga Odds & Picks

FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart

I wrote two weeks ago that I'd be looking to bet Stuttgart every weekend for the remainder of the season given that the market was too low on them and they were due for a ton of positive finishing variance. So far, they've covered both games — winning 3-2 at Bochum and pulling off a home draw against Dortmund. Similar to two weeks ago at Bochum, Stuttgart is again undervalued to take all three points against one of the league's bottom feeders.

Augsburg has ridden its counterattacking prowess and favorable finishing variance thus far, but they are really a team that should be in the bottom two based on underlying numbers. The attack is last in expected goals created and the defense allows the most shots and the most big scoring chances in the entire league.

Augsburg ranks decently well when it comes to producing an okay number of chances in transition, but are also last in possession percentage and pass completion rate. Stuttgart's defense doesn't do a ton of pressing and will let opponents complete short stuff, but are very good at preventing long passes and carries into the penalty area. For that reason, it's hard to see a ton of attacking success for Augsburg in this matchup. Stuttgart should control the midfield and considering its ball progression numbers are that of a top-eight team in the league, Stuttgart should be around even money here.

I'd bet Stuttgart on the moneyline at +110 or better.

Dabbundo's Pick: Stuttgart Moneyline (+110 or better)

Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig

Bayer Leverkusen has made massive improvements since Xabi Alonso came in as manager and Florian Wirtz returned from injury. Since the World Cup break, Leverkusen has a +0.7 xG difference per 90 minutes, which is third best in the Bundesliga behind only Bayern and RB Leipzig. Those are the only two teams that have played at a higher level and the gap between Leipzig and Leverkusen is virtually non-existent in that time frame. Leverkusen has changed its approach from the manic pressing of the past to a much more solid defensive unit that lets the opponent have the ball and pass it around, but is more solid and gets back to defend.

Leverkusen is bottom four in average shot distance allowed, bottom three in press intensity and bottom four in average pass completion rate allowed. Leipzig should be able to have some of the ball here and not get totally overwhelmed, but the Leipzig transition defense is sure to be tested because of Leverkusen's quick strike transition ability through Wirtz and Moussa Diaby.

From a talent and underlying metrics perspective, Leipzig's defense is weakest in the wide areas and that's a dangerous game to play against the pace of Leverkusen's wide players and even full backs. The gap between these teams has been shrinking for months and Leverkusen should be a favorite at home. I'd bet Leverkusen draw no bet at -115 or better.

Dabbundo's Pick: Bayer Leverkusen draw no bet (-115 or better)

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Borussia Monchengladbach vs Union Berlin

It might be hard to believe given their positions in the Bundesliga table, but Borussia Mönchengladbach has a better xG differential than Union Berlin this season. Gladbach has been a perfectly average Bundesliga team — 10th in the table, even in xG difference, -2 in actual goal difference. They've certainly had their highs — beating Dortmund and Bayern — and lows. For as good as Union has been at home — unbeaten all year — they've been mediocre on the road and are much more vulnerable. They have a -0.4 xGD per 90 and have lost six times on their travels. The defense doesn't travel nearly as well and the attack remains just as poor at creating chances.

Relative to its position in the table, Gladbach is a much more dominant possession side than most would expect. They like to keep the ball and break down opponents. They can strike quickly, but prefer to have longer and less direct possessions. Against Union Berlin, that's a suitable strategy. Union doesn't press, doesn't want the ball and will set up defensively. Gladbach has its flaws holding leads and it's cost them points, but they also feature way more attacking firepower and talent. These teams are about even in my power ratings and thus Gladbach should be more of a favorite at home than they are.

I'd bet Gladbach Moneyline at +130 or better.

Dabbundo's Pick: Gladbach Moneyline (+130 or better)