Bayern Munich opened as the heavy -700 favorites to win the Bundesliga this season, but the race has been a lot closer than many expected.
Bundesliga Title Odds
Dortmund were actually the favorites for the bulk of December, January and February, but since then they've returned to chasing Bayern from an odds standpoint.
Bayern Munich had a golden chance to wrap up the title in Week 37 but weren't able to score against RB Leipzig in a 0-0 draw. The dropped points now give Dortmund a slim chance at hoisting the trophy heading into the final match.
Bundesliga Betting Breakdown
For Saturday, oddsmakers opened Bayern in the -200 range to beat Frankfurt, but those odds have shot up to -325 since the match now has significant importance. The draw is currently listed at +450, a result which would also be enough for Bayern to clinch the title.
Public bettors aren't backing Bayern Munich as much as I thought they would. Less than 40% of all wagers have come in on the defending Bundesliga champions, so clearly, casual bettors are hoping for a big upset from Frankfurt. Sharp money has been largely responsible for the line movement toward Bayern Munich.
If Dortmund aren't able to beat Monchengladbach on Saturday then it's irrelevant what Bayern Munich does. Just 40% of tickets are on Dortmund and oddsmakers have actually adjusted the line slightly toward Monchengladbach (+195 to +185), so we could be in for a surprise in that one.
As we've mentioned all season long, Dortmund are somewhat lucky that the title race wasn't over a while ago. Their xPTS (expected points) is 11 points lower than where they currently stand, meaning they've severely exceeded expectations, while Bayern Munich have actually underperformed by nearly three full points.
The two clubs' expected goal differential (xGD) also sheds light on how much better Bayern Munich have been over the course of the season than Dortmund: Bayern's xGD is hovering around 60 goals (!) compared to Dortmund's 20, an overall margin of nearly 40 goals.
In their head-to-head meetings this season, Dortmund defeated Bayern Munich, 3-2, on November 10th, but Bayern put on a clinic in a 5-0 win on April 6th.
Prediction
I'm still holding on to a Bayern futures ticket at plus-money from back in December, and I believe they'll secure a victory against Frankfurt to seal their seventh straight Bundesliga title. And while I'm not going to bet it, I do like the value on Monchengladbach +0.5 goals (-130) to get a result against Dortmund on the final day.
