Burnley vs Arsenal Odds
| Burnley Odds | +900 |
| Arsenal Odds | -350 |
| Draw | +475 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +135 |
Arsenal will attempt to make it five consecutive Premier League victories when they visit Burnley as heavy favorites on Saturday at Turf Moor.
The Gunners have been simply magnificent of late, outscoring opponents 16-2 over that stretch whilst keeping the pressure on Liverpool and Manchester City in the title race. Third-place Arsenal trail City on only the secondary tiebreak of goals scored after their 6-0 thrashing of West Ham last weekend pulled the clubs even at a +31 goal differential.
Burnley have recently suffered 3-1 defeats to both of the other contenders in what appears to be a three-horse race for the league title. But they showed promise for steady stretches in their latest defeat last weekend at Anfield, and like much of the season might have come away from Merseyside with a point with better finishing.
It was the same 3-1 scoreline in favor of the Gunners when these sides previously met in London back in mid-November.
Here is how I'm betting Burnley vs Arsenal.
Burnley
Saturday will bring an end to a brutal seven-match stretch that has included five matches against the current top five in the league table.
The Clarets haven't taken points from any of those — and also suffered an FA Cup defeat to Tottenham — but weren't played off the pitch in any of them. But against Liverpool, they may feel they should've halted that fruitless stretch.
First, they conceded to Diogo Jota from a corner kick to go behind 1-0 somewhat against the run of play. Then when the game was still in reach at 2-1, winter window signing David Fofana had one breakaway effort saved in the 64th minute and another curl just outside the far post in the 67th.
On the other hand, even a second equalizer might not have been enough against a Liverpool side whose three goals only slightly exceeded their 2.8 expected goals created. And that has ultimately been the problem for Kompany's men against the league's elite.
They've already played eight matches against the current top five, and have conceded multiple goals in all of them, including three or more in seven of them and 25 goals total. They've allowed 17.9 xG total in those matches.
Arsenal
Arsenal's attacking form — led by five goals in the last five games from Bukayo Saka — will get a lot of attention, but the analytics suggest this has easily been the Gunners' best defensive stretch of the season.
Mikel Arteta's squad has allowed only a 1.3 combined xG across their four consecutive league wins and only one shot on goal to their last two opponents. Nottingham Forest's Taiwo Awonyi is the only opposing player to score against the Gunners in those 360 minutes, with Liverpool earning their only tally in a 3-1 defeat two weeks ago via an own goal.
Yet the Gunners have only kept back-to-back clean sheets in the league once when they won at Burnley and home to Manchester City in late September and early October. And their rout of West Ham was their seventh away league victory, it was only their second by multiple goals.
With the first leg of a UEFA Champions League round of 16 series against FC Porto looming on Wednesday, Saturday's match will end a stretch of five games when the focus has been solely on the league. Arsenal had only one other stretch that long this season, in which they took 13 out of 15 points back in August and September.
They've also shown consistency against this year's newly promoted sides, scoring three or more in all three such league matches so far.
Burnley vs Arsenal
Prediction
Burnley have appeared better than their results at times this season, but their defensive liabilities against the elite sides are relatively consistent and don't seem to be lessened by playing in front of their home supporters.
And while Arsenal could potentially head to the Northwest with one eye on their midweek trip to Portugal, it's hard to ignore the pattern of the Clarets' defensive record against the current top three and Arsenal's goal-scoring record against the league's newly promoted sides.
So the play here is the Arsenal team total to go above 2.5 goals at +132 odds and an implied 43.1% probability. Burnley's xG allowed in these circumstances may suggest this outcome is less likely than that probability, but it's also a number depressed by the game state of consistently playing from behind.
Against another top-five club, yes on both teams to score or Burnley to score exactly one goal would also be props to consider. But Arsenal have just been too good defensively of late to dabble there.
