Burnley vs Brighton Odds
| Burnley Odds | +250 |
| Brighton Odds | +100 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150/+120 |
With just six matches remaining, Burnley's chances of avoiding relegation and staying in the Premier League next season continue to dwindle. The Clarets' form has ticked up with just one defeat in the past five matches, but Burnley will need at least two or three wins in its final six matches to surpass both Nottingham Forest and Luton Town and avoid relegation.
Burnley hosts struggling Brighton on Saturday. The Seagulls haven't scored multiple goals in a match since a 5-0 thrashing at Sheffield United on Feb. 18. Brighton's defense is comfortably outperforming the offense when you compare their ranks in xG created and allowed per match. The market continues to have the goal environment too high for Brighton matches, and Saturday's clash with Burnley is no exception.
Burnley
Burnley has the second-fewest shots attempted, the lowest attacking set piece efficiency and the second-lowest expected threat created in the Premier League this season. No team has a lower xG per shot or longer average shot distance than Vincent Kompany's side. Burnley attempted to be a possession-first team in the lower half of the table, but their inability to dynamically attack defenses even when they do break through pressure has left them quite poor in chance creation this season. They were getting the negative trade-offs — high turnovers leading to clear chances for the opponent — without the positives of big chances of their own.
Kompany has adjusted his side's play style in the second half of the season to try to better cope with the talent deficit his club faces in most matches in this league. They're more passive and possession averse in the second half of the season. That has improved the defense considerably as Burnley is in the top half in xG conceded since 2024 began. It also has left the attack mostly anemic at threatening in a wide-open Premier League. While goal scoring is way up across the English top flight, more than three goals per match on average, Burnley has averaged 0.89 xG and scored 0.83 goals per match in the past three months of the PL.
The change in style should suit them well to slow down Brighton's possession heavy attack. Teams have had success in two different ways against Brighton this year. There's either the plan to blitz the ball progression — Arsenal and Luton Town had major success forcing high turnovers. Or, teams can play quite passively and limit Brighton's ability to play through, exposing space behind the defense.
Given Brighton's attacking limitations right now, the passive version of Burnley we've seen lately should be able to hold down Brighton enough to keep this match competitive.
Brighton
Leandro Trossard's late goal for Arsenal pushed the Brighton total at three last week, but I'm back playing into a lower scoring environment. Brighton have played nine matches in all competitions since their 5-0 beatdown of Sheffield United two months ago. They've scored one goal four times and been held scoreless five times. Blind unders in Brighton matches throughout this stretch are 6-2-1. Roma and Fulham went over by themselves in the only matches that cleared the Asian Handicap total.
If you only count 11-on-11 minutes in the new year, Brighton has averaged 1.08 xG per 90. That's third worst in the Premier League. Roberto De Zerbi's tactical approach has lacked the continuity and fluidity that romped the English top flight last season. The defense is conceding 1.53 xGA per match in this same time frame, which is actually seventh best and suggests Brighton has fixed some of its major transition defense flaws in the past couple months.
Burnley vs Brighton Prediction
Both of these teams rank inside the bottom five in the Premier League in xG created per set piece. Neither club has been even average at creating from dead ball situations, and now Burnley is set up to play more passively. The total for this match should be 2.75, and yet we can bet Under 3 at -120.
I'd bet that under to -130 and expect Brighton to continue its slog through the remaining matches in this season.
