Burnley vs Crystal Palace Odds
| Burnley Odds | +175 |
| Crystal Palace Odds | +160 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +120 / -154 |
Vincent Kompany and Burnley will be hosting Crystal Palace on Saturday in a match where both sides will be desperate for a result. Burnley will be looking to potentially jump out of the relegation zone with a win, while Palace will be looking to keep the ship steady until their big guns return from injury.
Burnley have gotten off to a nightmare start in their return to the Premier League, currently sat 19th on just four points. They are coming off three consecutive league losses and a Carabao Cup loss this past Wednesday at Goodison Park.
Palace had a decent start to this season but have stalled recently due to the lack of attacking firepower. With Eze and Olise both out with injury, Palace have only scored two goals in their last four matches and are struggling to create much of a threat at all.
Let’s get into where my Burnley vs Crystal Palace prediction stands.
Burnley
Burnley have just one win and one draw in their first ten matches of the season, which is easily relegation form. They have not looked like the same side that dominated the Championship last season, and Kompany is partly to blame for that.
He wants to play a nice brand of football. High press, high possession and high intensity. This is how they were able to dominate the Championship last season, as they played like the Championship version of Manchester City. Kompany has tried to implement this same style in the Premier League, but it has not worked at all.
Burnley are yet to keep a clean sheet in the league, having conceded an average of 2.5 goals per game. They have underperformed their xGA slightly with it being at 23.5, however, when you are facing an average of 6.2 shots on target a match it is incredibly difficult for Trafford to keep them in many matches.
They have also been extremely inefficient in their build up play, especially compared to last season. Burnley scored 87 goals in the Championship last season but have only managed seven so far this season. Simply put, the defenses in the Premier League are just at a much higher quality than what they are used to playing through last season.
Kompany has not shown that he knows how to play any other way, and if he does not figure out a solution soon then Burnley could find themselves back in the Championship next season.
Crystal Palace
Roy Hodgson has made Palace a tough side to play against, but that will not result in many points if they can’t create chances. Their xGD is -3.4 over the first 10 matches, which is the typical mid-table level which you would expect from this Palace side. However, in the three matches since Eze has been injured, they have only managed 2.6 xG.
They have been good defensively, which is typical from a Hodgson side. They have conceded an average of just 3.5 shots on target per game, which is the third-lowest in the league, only behind Arsenal and Manchester City. Their backline has been performing with some of the best in the league, but they have been let down by the lack of goal scorers and their goalkeeper thus far.
Palace have conceded 1.7 more goals than their PSxG tally would suggest, and this can only be due to Sam Johnstone being out of form. They are not conceding big chances and have not given up many xG so far this season, yet they are conceding at a higher rate than expected.
In this match, they will be playing their typical low block while allowing Burnley to try and break them down. They will look to counter quick against this Burnley side as they have shown how susceptible they have been on the counter this season.
Burnley vs Crystal Palace
Prediction
I anticipate Palace to allow Burnley to have the majority of possession in this one. They will be looking to break down this solid Crystal Palace backline, which is extremely difficult given the quality of defenders that Palace have, as well as how effective Doucoure has been for them in the middle of the park breaking up play.
Burnley have started scoring more recently than in their last few matches, and I do anticipate they will get a goal in this match due to how much pressure they will likely be putting on this Palace defense.
On the flip side, because of how vulnerable Burnley have looked on counterattacks this season, I anticipate Crystal Palace to score at least one as well.
I see slight value on Both Teams To Score – Yes, but also like how each side matches up with one another in this one, therefore I will be taking BTTS at -120.
I also will be sprinkling Crystal Palace on the moneyline just because I think the line is a bit too short against a Burnley side who really has not proved anything in the league so far.
