Burnley vs Everton Odds
| Burnley Odds | +260 |
| Everton Odds | +240 |
| Draw | +110 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +100/-125 |
Burnley will look to earn points in back-to-back matches for the first time this season when they host former manager Sean Dyche's Everton in Saturday's late Premier League fixture.
The Clarets earned an impressive 1-1 draw at Brighton and Hove Albion last weekend, but still begin the matchday in 19th place and five points adrift of safety from relegation. And they only have one win at home, a 5-0 victory over a Sheffield United side that occupies the lone spot beneath them in the table.
Everton holds that 17th spot after their third straight victory, 2-0 at home over Chelsea last Saturday. But their position is largely the results of a 10-point deduction handed down by the Premier League last month for a breach of Financial Fair Play rules. Without that, they'd sit ninth in the league and closer to the European spots than the bottom three.
This is already these teams' second meeting, after Everton's comfortable 3-0 home win in the third round of the League Cup to begin November.
Burnley
Last weekend's draw may have provided Burnley a building block, but Saturday may determines whether manager Vincent Kompany's squad is showing more material signs of improvement.
The Clarets struck first against the Seagulls, then yielded far more of the chances over the 90 minutes, as they have in most of their contests this season, averaging an expected-goals difference of -0.77 per 90 minutes.
They've only exceeded 1.3 xG created once in their first 16 league games — against a Sheffield United side that is also headed straight back to the League Championship if things don't change.
In fairness to Kompany's men, they've probably deserved better results than they've received in their home games, earning only three points at Turf Moor, despite exceeding opponents in xG created in three of their eight home games.
That bad fortune — or perhaps it's also bad defending — has shown up mostly in the opponents' attacking end, where visitors have scored 20 goals on just over 12 xG created.
There may also be a strength-of-schedule bias at play in those bad home numbers, with Burnley having already hosted five top-half sides.
Everton
The narrative right now is that the sanction against Dyche's side has solidified the Toffees into a group that is greater than the sum of its parts. It's a convenient story, but not exactly truthful.
Everton had already given several strong performances before receiving their punishment, particularly away from home.
So although the Toffees weren't quite as dominant as scores of 3-0 against Newcastle and 2-0 against Chelsea suggested in their past two matches, those results made sense if you were expecting Everton's home performances to line up better with their analytic numbers over the long term.
Everton's +4.3 xG difference is ninth in the Premier League, and their record without the PL sanction would be good for 10th in the table. If the Toffees have overachieved, it's in their away results, where they've earned 13 points in seven matches despite a negative xG differential.
Dyche will be slightly short-handed in his first managerial return to Turf Moor since departing his former club. Center back Jarrad Branthwaite and holding midfielder Idrissa Gueye will both be serving card accumulation suspensions.
Burnley vs Everton
Prediction
If your analysis tells you Burnley are due for an improvement at home and Everton are in line to regress on the road, the simplest thing to do might be to play the home side. But the price is probably too high when you consider how these sides match up.
Kompany's Clarets want to have the ball. And Dyche's Everton are plenty happy to cede possessions for opponents — so much so that five of their seven league wins have come when they've had less than 40% possession.
That means I need to find a second angle to tie to Burnley to make the hosts lucrative enough for my liking. For me, that's parlaying a double-chance wager with a yes bet on both teams to score at +185 odds and an implied 35.1% probability.
The Clarets have kept exactly one clean sheet to date — against none other than Sheffield United. Everton have only failed to score twice on their travels — at league leaders Liverpool and third-place Aston Villa — and while they've excelled defensively of late, they've also conceded in both their games against newly promoted sides.
If Burnley are going to take a point, they'll probably have to score once. If they're going to take three, they will probably have to do so despite conceding. While this is very much a "feel" play, it's one I feel comfortable making at least a small bet on.
Pick: Burnley or draw – double chance and Yes – Both teams to score, same-game parlay (+185, BetMGM)
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