Burnley vs Fulham Odds
| Burnley Odds | +195 |
| Fulham Odds | +140 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -105 / -115 |
Burnley scored a late consolation goal in stoppage time to avoid a shutout and cover the spread in a 3-1 defeat on the road at Manchester City on Wednesday. The gap between the Clarets and the safety has grown to seven points with 16 matches to play in the Premier League season. A home match against shorthanded Fulham on Saturday is an excellent opportunity for Vincent Kompany's team to improve its chances of survival.
Fulham settled for a goalless draw at home against Everton on Tuesday, and striker Raul Jimenez picked up an injury that could leave an already struggling Fulham attack in more peril. Burnley and Fulham enter this match in the bottom five in both expected goals created and expected threat created in the Premier League this season.
The Cottagers are a small road favorite, which is right in line with my projections for each team going forward. The value in betting this match lies in the total, where both attacks lack the quality to warrant this total at a flat 2.5.
Here is how I'm betting Burnley vs Fulham.
Burnley
Burnley created just 0.4 xG in their win at Fulham in the reverse fixture and without some low quality shots finding the net, the attack will struggle to score here. There's not a single attacking category where the Clarets rank better than the bottom five in the PL. They're bottom two in shots, xG and big scoring chances. They're not efficient on set pieces, they rank 17th in total box entries, 20th in crossing and 19th in expected threat.
The Clarets managed to produce 1.4 xG against Manchester City, but 0.95 of that came on a tap in that was bundled over the line on a chance that came from nothing. Even when playing at home this season, Burnley have averaged one expected goal per match. Burnley have the third-longest average shot distance, the lowest xG per shot and the second-fewest shots in the entire league.
Now that Sheffield United and Luton Town have made some new signings and tactical tweaks, this is the worst attacking outfit in the Premier League. One positive for the Clarets has been in goal, where James Trafford has a solid shot stopping profile this year. It's helped save a defense that is still conceding 1.5 xGA at home this season.
Fulham
Neither team has a single player inside the top 35 of the league’s Opta’s “Attacking Contribution” metric. The highest ranked player for either team is Fulham’s Alex Iwobi, who will miss this match due to AFCON.
Fulham’s attacking issues were on full display in the reverse fixture, when the Cottagers managed 19 total shots for just 1.1 expected goals. Almost none of the shots came from high quality positions and they consistently settled for poor quality shots from distance. This is a battle of contrasting styles, as Fulham want to makes games more frenetic with lots of possession and pressing, and Burnley have tried to build their team in the style of slow build-up. The Clarets' defensive metrics are also quite poor, but Fulham aren't the team to take advantage of them.
The absence of Iwobi takes away a key piece for Fulham, as the decline in production from striker Raul Jimenez isn’t supplemented well enough by the midfield runs of Iwobi. They have no other player averaging more than 0.2 xG per 90 when you remove penalties from the sample now that Jimenez could also miss this match with an injury he picked up on Tuesday.
Fulham have the longest average shot distance in the PL, a sign that the attacking has major regression coming and will not continue to produce at around the 12th best in the league going forward. The Cottagers have managed nine total expected goals in 11 away matches this season.
Burnley vs Fulham
Prediction
The first meeting between these two teams saw Fulham have a ton of possession and tilt the field on Burnley without a ton of attacking production to show for it. The tactical setup doesn't change much here, as Jimenez is likely out again, Iwobi remains at AFCON and both attacks seriously lack difference makers.
The total should be closer to 2.25 than the current 2.5 line it's set at. I'd bet under 2.5 at -120 or better.
