Liverpool vs Burnley Odds
| Liverpool Odds | +550 |
| Burnley Odds | -250 |
| Draw | +425 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -200 / +150 |
Burnley will look for their first back-to-back wins of the season — and potentially a ticket out of the relegation places — when they welcome second-place Liverpool in a traditional Boxing Day clash.
They earned a smash-and-grab 2-0 victory on Saturday in a trip to Fulham's Craven Cottage, marking a third match in five games in which the Clarets have picked up points. However, their home form remains the worst in the Premier League, with only three points earned through nine matches.
Liverpool settled for a 1-1 home draw against league leaders Arsenal later Saturday, leveling later in the first half through Mohammed Salah after falling behind early. A share of the points was probably the deserved outcome, even though the Reds struck the goal frame after halftime and Jurgen Klopp thought his side should have been awarded a penalty.
The Reds have dominated this fixture this century, posting a 12-2-2 record (W-L-D) in 16 meetings since 2009, all coming in the Premier League.
Here is how I'm betting Burnley vs Liverpool.
Burnley
Manager Vincent Kompany has tried admirably to play the same attack-minded football that easily earned the Clarets promotion back to the top flight during last year's League Championship campaign.
And yet his side's two most impressive results of the season — Saturday's victory and a draw at Brighton three matches ago — have come while his side were overwhelmingly playing on the counter.
There will be some Burnley fans who will cite those results as proof that the former Manchester City defensive legend should become more conservative in his approach.
But the analytics suggest that could also be a dangerous game. While Burnley took points in both those matches, which also marked their two lowest possession shares of the season, they trailed 3.9 to 1.0 in the combined expected goals totals across those games. In the games with their next-three lowest possession totals, they lost all three by a combined 10-2 margin.
Burnley's woeful 1-8-0 (W-L-D) record at Turf Moor is indeed strange. But so is the schedule that has oddly skewed the majority of the Clarets' toughest home fixtures to the first half of the season. Their visiting opponents so far have included six teams in the top half of the table, as well as an Everton side that would also be there if not for their 10-point sanction.
Liverpool
Where Liverpool have mostly improved upon their performances from last year's fifth-place finish is in their away form. Jurgen Klopp's men have taken 16 points from their travels so far, which marks more than 66% of their total haul away from home last season.
They'd even be unbeaten on their travels if not for an offside decision at Tottenham that PGMOL — the league referees' association — was eventually forced to issue an apology for.
And yet the overwhelming majority of those games have been close contests — with all but two decided by one goal or fewer. They have yet to score more than three on their travels in any competition this season, having done so three times during the 2022-2023 campaign.
Salah's goal was his 12th of the season, during a season in which the 31-year old has also amazingly led Liverpool in minutes played. That's been possible in part because of the lesser demands of competition in the UEFA Europa League following last season's fifth-place finish, which has allowed Klopp to rotate more of his squad more regularly.
The Reds could have some liability on the left side of their back line. Kostas Tsimikas broke his collarbone in the draw against Arsenal, leaving Klopp without a true left fullback on his active roster.
Burnley vs Liverpool
Prediction
The analytics suggest Burnley are due slightly better home results than they've received when you adjust the xG totals for the difficulty of their early home schedule. The eye test suggests playing the Clarets to beat an increasingly confident Liverpool side is a lot of risk to shoulder, even if there is value.
Instead, there's two Liverpool trends that, when coupled together, make for a potentially rewarding wager regardless of who takes the points. There have been four or fewer goals scored in every one of the Reds' away league matches. And they've conceded to every opponent on the road except a Sheffield United side that is the worst Premier League attacking team we've seen in several years.
Parlay those together and you can get +160 odds and an implied 38.5% probability that surely seems lower than the actual probability of such an outcome. It's not quite the same return as playing the Clarets to earn some surprising home points, but it may still pay out if Kompany's men can continue a recent upturn.
Pick: Both Teams to Score and under 4.5, same-game parlay (+160 via DraftKings)
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