Burnley vs Newcastle Odds
| Burnley Odds | +240 |
| Newcastle Odds | -106 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 +120o / -150u |
Burnley will try to extend a recent improvement in form — and maybe even escape the relegation zone — on Saturday when it hosts a Newcastle United side still pursuing a top-six finish.
Vincent Kompany's Clarets have lost only once in the last eight league games to mount a late-season climb toward safety, most recently earning a 1-1 draw at Manchester United last weekend. They begin this weekend still in 19th, but two points beneath 17th-place Nottingham Forest with three matches to go for all three teams still in the relegation mix.
Newcastle has also been in good form since the end of March, winning four of its last six to climb to seventh and within a point of sixth-place Manchester United. And they've been particularly prolific in attack, scoring at least four goals in three of those victories.
The Magpies dominated the previous meeting, a 2-0 win at St. James' Park at the end of September in which Newcastle was unfortunate not to score at least one more goal.
Burnley
Kompany's group has been lauded throughout the season for attempting to play attacking football. But the key to their late-season improvement has been turning that intention into more quantifiable chances.
Six of Burnley's eight top performances in terms of expected goals created have come during this eight-match run. And although the Clarets only created more xG than their opposition in three of those fixtures, the effort was good enough to secure at least a point on five occasions.
The addition of Chelsea loan product David Datro Fofana during the winter has certainly been part of that improvement, even though he has now gone five appearances without finding the net. But ironically, another contributor to the attacking improvement might be goalkeeper Arijanet Muric.
Even though the Kosovo international has twice committed gaffes leading to goals since winning the starting job from James Trafford, he's clearly been an upgrade. His 86.5% save rate is 20 points higher than Trafford's, and according to post-shot expected goals, he is performing nearly a goal better per 90 minutes than the England youth international.
While Muric can't create chances for his teammates, his performance has almost certainly made Kompany more comfortable with his team taking more risks in the attacking third.
Newcastle
After a disproportionate wave of injuries contributed to a December swoon for the Magpies, there was always a feeling Eddie Howe's bunch could make a late run when the schedule got less congested and the squad got healthier.
Despite some false starts, that potential was realized in April when his side played at a caliber similar to the 2022-2023 season that earned Newcastle a UEFA Champions League berth.
Perhaps many have raided Sheffield United's back line for goals, as Newcastle did in last weekend's 5-1 home win. But the Magpies also penetrated more formidable opponents Tottenham and West Ham for four goals each during those victories.
Alexander Isak scored a brace in all three victories in a late-season flourish that has brought his league total to 19 goals, vaulting him into third in the Premier League scoring race and just two back of Manchester City's Erling Haaland. Isak has more or less been good value for his seven total league goals in the last six games, scoring them on 6.0 xG in terms of chances taken.
On the other end of the pitch, Newcastle kept two clean sheets in five April league fixtures after preserving only one from January to March. It would've been three if not for a fortunate, albeit correctly awarded, penalty conceded in a 1-1 home draw to Everton.
Burnley vs Newcastle
Prediction
But for as good as Newcastle has looked of late, away from — and particularly away defending — has been a stubborn problem.
While the Magpies have earned three wins in their last six away games, they've still conceded multiple goals in four of those. Over the totality of the season, the caliber of opponent hasn't mattered a whole lot in terms of their tendency to concede, having let in multiple goals in five of eight matches when visiting teams currently in the bottom half.
Burnley hasn't often translated their attacking improvement to increased output against higher-quality sides at home. But if you believe that the Clarets' improvement is real, which I do, then part of that owes to a skewed schedule in which most of the league's elite visited Turf Moor early in the season.
So I'm inclined to believe Burnley's recent uptick in chance creation could spell problems for a Magpies back line that has played down to its competition. And I'm playing Burnley to find the net at least twice again at +128 and an implied 43.9% probability. I'd keep the stake reasonably small though, and wouldn't go much beneath +115 to +120 on the price.
