Canada vs Chile Odds, Canada – Chile Picks
| Canada Odds | +195 |
| Chile Odds | +145 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-115o / -110u) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 8 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | FS2 |
| Odds as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings | |
Chile need a victory to keep their quarterfinal hopes alive when they face a Canada side that will probably need only a draw to progress to their first-ever Copa America knockout stage.
Chile have yet to score in the tournament, after also managing only three goals in their first six CONMEBOL qualifying matches, and fell 1-0 to Argentina on Tuesday when Lautaro Martinez scored in the 88th minute at the Meadowlands.
Earlier that day, Canada scored their first goal and earned its first win under new manager Jesse Marsch, with Jonathan David's counterattack strike in the 74th enough to see off 10-man Panama by a 1-0 score.
This is the first meeting between these programs since a 1995 friendly, and the first ever in a competitive fixture. Let's get into Canada vs Chile.
Canada Picks
After a promising performance in a 2-0, tournament-opening loss to Argentina, Canada came in as favorites on match day 2 against Peru.
But in the first 45 minutes, Canada struggled to match Peru's physicality and energy amid a game played on a sweltering late afternoon in Kansas City. It got better early in the second half after Marsch made three halftime changes, and better still when Peru's Miguel Araujo was sent off in the 59th minute.
Jonathan David finished off an excellent counterattack 15 minutes after that to get Canada in front, and Maxime Crepeau made a couple strong late saves to preserve all three points.
Crepeau has been one of the tournament's best goalkeepers so far, sitting third in relative to post-shot expected goals relative to goals conceded. Those post-shot numbers suggest Crepeau should've conceded four times by now, and not just the two he allowed to Argentina.
Technically, Canada's spot in the last eight won't be secure with a draw. But it would take Peru winning and scoring multiple goals against Argentina, after having scored only once in eight competitive fixtures dating back to last fall.
Chile Picks
Chile defenderd heroically for most of its defeat to Argentina, but going forward they were literally almost non-existent. It took 72 minutes for La Roja to record their first shot of any sort, and the final expected goals count of 2.7 to 0.1 in favor of the Argentines was an accurate reflection of how the match played out.
The flow of the game also called into question the usefulness of Chile's all-time scoring leader Alexis Sanchez as a starter asked to carry the attack at this stage of his career.
The 35-year old is more often a useful piece of the bench for Italian champions Inter Milan these days, and he doesn't have a goal or an assist in his last 12 appearances in a national team shirt. All three of Chile's shots came after manager Ricardo Gareca pulled him off in the 66th minute.
On the other end of the pitch, the 41-year old Claudio Bravo shows no signs of age having a negative impact. He's the top performing goalkeeper in the competition according to how he has fared against post-shot expected goals, which would've predicted he would have conceded four times by now.
Canada vs Chile
Prediction
Both goalkeepers have spared their teams blushes so far in this tournament, performing well above a level that is sustainable. Bravo is still in the top tier of La Liga shot stoppers analytically, but he only plays sparingly at age 41. Crepeau statistically is not a particularly good shot stopper in MLS, even if he's had good moments for Canada.
It's not hard to envision the performance of even one man regressing and leading to a higher scoring game here than we expect. And the reality is both teams probably have more talent in their front six than in their back four, even if Chile in particular have had trouble expressing that reality so far.
But unlike Chile's first two matches, the onus is on them to create chances, and when teams feel urgency to score against opponents who are versed in a transition-oriented system like what Canada are best at, that often leads to more chance creation on both ends of the pitch.
It feels counterintuitive given what we've seen so far. But the play here is the over at +110 or better. At the time of writing, you can get it at +123 and an implied 44.8% probability.
Pick: Over 2.5 (+123 via BetRivers)
