Canada vs. Morocco Odds
| Canada Odds | +350 |
| Morocco Odds | -120 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+120 / -150) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (+105 / -143) |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here. | |
Canada's first World Cup appearance since 1986 ended after just two matches when the Canadians lost 1-0 to Belgium and 4-1 to Croatia in their first two matches. The market has moved against them in their final match against Morocco given the presumed motivational mismatch.
Since the Moroccans beat Belgium 2-0 and tied 0-0 with Croatia, they just need a draw to advance to the knockout stage. But a win and some help in the other match could be enough to see them top this group.
Morocco have been one of the best defensive sides at this tournament thus far, but Canada really have nothing to lose by playing their fast, direct and attacking style against them on Thursday. That could open the door to Morocco hitting them in transition and exploiting more defensive weaknesses for the Canadians.
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Canada Likely to Push Forward
Canada's defense has not fared well outside of CONCACAF in this World Cup cycle. They've been effective at defending Mexico, Costa Rica and even the United States, but this World Cup has shown that those teams have deficiencies at striker and finishing that made them struggle to break Canada down.
A team with the quality of Croatia in the midfield and wide areas was able to easily expose Canada's defensive midfield and center backs. There were some warning signs that Uruguay exposed in a recent friendly, but Belgium were unable to in the first match. The Canadians conceded plenty of space in transition but allowed just 0.8 xGA and one goal in that match.
Canada have no reason to not send numbers forward and try to find another goal. It could potentially produce a win or draw, any type of result to build on for the next World Cup cycle. The Canadians are a national team on the rise with an excellent young nucleus of players.
The attack has also produced very impressive underlying numbers in this tournament. They're top eight in xG created, box entries and passes into the penalty area. Jonathan David's finishing at the top has been poor and that's hurt them, as did the Alphonso Davies missed penalty against Belgium.
But even while getting outplayed against Croatia, there were moments that Canada had them under pressure and defending their penalty area in a panic.
Morocco Playing With Confidence
Morocco were a sleeper team in this group coming into the tournament, and their defensive solidity and quality midfield and wide play has helped them pick up four points. They played to a true stalemate against the Croatians, with neither side really willing to take a big chance and risk losing that match.
They were able to completely shut down the Belgian attack though and create multiple dangerous set pieces, counterattacks and free kicks to ultimately undo the Belgian defense. They have the third-lowest percentage of possession of any team in the tournament and yet conceded less than one xG in each of their two matches.
One player that's been extremely impressive thus far is midfielder Sofyan Amrabat. One major question mark was the true quality of the midfield to compete with Croatia and Belgium. In two matches, he produced more of an all-around showing than both Luka Modric and Kevin De Bruyne.
When Morocco has had to go to their bench, the performances haven't really dropped off either.
Canada vs. Morocco Pick
Morocco are inflated in the market right now. For example, Croatia closed +125 against this same Canadian team. Yes, Canada gets downgraded off of that loss where they were badly outplayed. But you would need to think that Morocco are equal to or better than Croatia to bet the African side at this moneyline price.
The market is pricing in the perceived motivational mismatch, but there's no reason to expect the Canadians to not give this a great effort. Just being at the World Cup is a major boost for the country and players. Morocco's defense hasn't seen an attacking group with the quality of David, Davies and Tajon Buchanan. While Canada don't have the overall talent of the last two teams Morocco played, the defense will struggle with the Canadian direct pace and play.
Morocco only need a draw to advance though, and they should be able to find more than enough transition opportunities against this wide open Canadian defensive structure.
The Pick: Both Teams to Score (-110)
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