Canada vs Uruguay Odds
| Canada Odds | +500 |
| Uruguay Odds | -185 |
| Draw | +330 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -152 / +124 |
Canada faces Uruguay in Saturday night’s third-place game at Copa America, which may be of particular curiosity to Leeds United supporters.
The game features two former Leeds managers: Uruguay’s Marcelo Bielsa and Canada’s Jesse Marsch.
Bielsa managed Leeds for the majority of four seasons, guiding them to Premier League promotion in his second campaign but exiting midway through his fourth amid a relegation fight.
Marsch succeeded him and kept Leeds safe for a season, but lasted for less than a full calendar year before exiting amid another relegation battle.
As for Canada and Uruguay, this is only the nations’ third meeting all time and the first in a competitive fixture. Uruguay won the previous two, including a 2-0 victory in a September 2022 preparation match for the 2022 World Cup.
Here is my Canada vs Uruguay pick.
Canada Picks
Finishing third at Copa America would be a notable honor for Canada in their first-ever tournament appearance.
But that goal may take a back seat for Marsch, who has only held his job since May and is still trying to learn and grow his squad depth.
Marsch lamented that a lack of established depth contributed to a 2-0 semifinal defeat to Argentina — and it’s a credible claim. According to Transfermarkt, more than half of Canada’s total squad value of roughly $200 million is tied up in two players — striker Jonathan David and left back Alphonso Davies.
The latter took a considerable knock in the semifinal and seems like a good candidate for rotation.
Canada has scored only twice, despite creating 6.5 expected goals during the tournament. Nashville SC’s Jacob Shaffelburg is the only player who has outperformed his xG total, scoring once on 0.3 xG.
Uruguay Picks
Uruguay will play their third-place game amid uncertainty over the present and future eligibility of Darwin Nunez and perhaps other players following an ugly scene in the aftermath of a 1-0 semifinal defeat to Colombia.
Nunez was the most visible of several Uruguay players who entered the stands following the match in an apparent altercation with Colombia fans.
The nation’s football federation has said the incident was a response to a lack of security to protect team family and friends seated near Uruguay’s bench.
It’s the first time Uruguay has appeared in this game since doing so three straight times between 2001 and 2007. They finished third in 2004 and fourth on the other two occasions.
Defender Rodrigo Bentancur and midfielder Ronald Araujo are both unlikely to feature after each picked up injuries in the knockout stage.
This could also be the final appearance in a competitive fixture for Luis Suarez, the nation’s all-time leading scorer who at age 37 has already said his 2024 campaign with Inter Miami will be his final pro season.
Canada vs Uruguay
Prediction
If both teams make some rotations, that heavily favors Uruguay.
While the gap between Uruguay’s first XI and Canada’s first XI is significant, the gap between each nation’s second XI is even wider. And I also suspect Uruguay may treat the outcome of the match more seriously, if only because a loss to Canada would be considered a black eye by those back at home, even in a relatively inconsequential third-place game.
In particular, I think there’s value on Canada not to score. While Marsch’s team has been dangerous, the idea of his second-choice players trying to dissect Bielsa’s unique pressing schemes feels like a formula for a long, disjointed afternoon.
Canada’s attacking numbers in the tournament are also substantially inflated by playing roughly 90 minutes with a man advantage.
I’m playing Uruguay win-to-nil at +170 odds and an implied 37% probability. It’s a wager that has cashed in 40% of each team’s games so far this tournament, and that is before controlling for the strength of the opponents.
