Twelve Premier League sides will play in their first cup action of the season when Round 2 of the Carabao Cup kicks off on Tuesday and Wednesday.
On Tuesday, London sides Fulham and Tottenham Hotspur will meet at Craven Cottage in a battle of squads adjusting to life after a key striker.
At the same time in North Wales, Wrexham FC of American TV fame will host an all-League Two cup tie against Bradford City.
Then on Wednesday night, two struggling sides three divisions apart meet when the PL's Everton goes to visit League Two's Doncaster Rovers.
Here are our best bets, featuring Fulham vs Tottenham and Wrexham vs Bradford.
Carabao Cup Odds & Picks
Tottenham vs Fulham
Tue, 2:45 p.m. ET
Tottenham Hotspur are off to the more promising start, but these teams have two things in common: Playing some of the more open games in the Premier League, and a lack of clarity about the striker position.
Richarlison still hasn’t found his scoring boots for Spurs following Harry Kane’s exit, and numerous reports suggest the club could splash for another forward before the primary transfer window closes later this week.
Similarly, Raul Jimenez so far looks unlikely to fill the void for Fulham left by Aleksandar MItrovic’s departure to Saudi Arabia.
Even so, these teams’ six EPL matches have averaged 3.67 xG combined between teams per match (with three penalties awarded factoring into that total).
But no game has seen more than four scored so far. And while the chances may keep flowing, that attacking susceptibility will probably blunt the possibility of a thriller with five or more goals.
So the wager I like here is a goal-bands play on the total landing on 3 or 4 goals at +140 odds and an implied 41.7% probability. It’s cashed in half of these teams' league games to date.
Quillen's Pick: Goal bands, 3-4 totals goals (+140 via DraftKings)
Wrexham vs Bradford
Tue, 2:45 p.m. ET
Newly promoted Wrexham host Bradford City in what may be the most-monitored match of the round outside of those played by Premier League clubs, thanks to the FXX Welcome to Wrexham documentary series following the club owned by Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney.
And under the current regime, there’s been a bit of feast or famine to the Red Dragons’ play, a trend that was magnified in recent cup competitions.
While they opened the current EFL Cup campaign by advancing on penalties following a 0-0 draw at Wigan, seven of their nine games between last year’s FA Cup and FA Trophy games cleared the 3.5 goal threshold.
The same occurred three times in their first five League Two matches, and those matches have averaged 3.41 combined xG, says FootyStats.org. Those five games might not be a large enough sample to be reliably predictive, but it follows an already established pattern.
Bradford City’s league matches have averaged only 2.0 goals per game, but with an average of 2.75 xG per match, according to the same site.
So overall, maybe the price on the over should be higher. But given that feast or famine nature, the better value may come by selling a goal and playing the total over 3.5 here at +195 odds and an implied 33.9% probability.
Quillen's Pick: Over 3.5 (+195 via DraftKings)
Doncaster vs Everton
Wed, 2:45 p.m. ET
Everton have yet to score or earn a point in the new Premier League season, stoking fears of a third relegation fight in as many seasons on the blue half of Merseyside.
The Toffees remain flawed so long as they don’t have a real solution at striker.
But the quality of play has been better than the results, and even the inability to finish any of a wealth of chances at home hasn’t entirely owed to wastefulness.
Instead, Fulham's Bernd Leno and Wolves’ Jose Sa combined to keep clean sheets on shots on target that combined for 3.93 post-shot xG.
It’s unlikely Everton will see that level of goalkeeping from a Doncaster side that currently occupies the very lowest spot in the 92-team league football table.
Additionally, those woes may make manager Sean Dyche more likely to play closer to a first-choice XI at Doncaster in the hopes it helps his attacking group find some confidence.
Low public confidence on Everton means you can play them to cover a 1.5-goal spread against a last-place team three tiers below at +1.5 goals and an implied 45.9% probability.
It’s a good buy-low opportunity, exactly because it doesn’t feel like it.
Quillen's Pick: Asian Handicap, Everton -1.5 goals (+118 via BetRivers)
