Celtic vs Atletico Madrid Odds
| Celtic Odds | +300 |
| Atletico Madrid Odds | -125 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +107 |
Atlético Madrid will be visiting Scotland and Celtic Park this week in an attempt to stay atop Group E. This will be the first time these two sides will meet since November of 2011 where Atlético won 1-0 at Celtic Park.
Celtic have been incredible this season in the Scottish Premiership, having won eight of their first nine matches so far. However, Brendan Rodgers' men have lost both of their group matches against Feyenoord and Lazio, putting them rock bottom of Group E.
Atlético currently sit fourth in La Liga and have won six straight matches in all competitions. Diego Simeone has his men playing exactly how he wants them to in a low-block counterattacking style with players like Antoine Griezmann playing at a world-class level.
Celtic need points, will Atlético be the ones to give them up? Let’s get into my Celtic vs Atlético prediction.
Celtic
Rodgers will look to be on the front foot in this match, needing to gain any sort of momentum if they want a chance of getting out of this group. They have not played too bad in either of their group matches.
Celtic lost 2-0 to a good Feyenoord side in the Netherlands, but managed to only concede 1.6 xGA, the issue was they only managed 0.3 xG themselves. That was just a case of defending against a better team away from home and trying to counter, and fair play to Feyenoord because they did not allow that.
They were unlucky in their last match against Lazio, where they slightly won the xG battle, but were heartbroken when Pedro scored a last-minute winner for Lazio. Rodgers' gameplan worked well in that match as they were on the front foot to start the match and scored the opening goal.
I anticipate them to set up in a similar way to the Lazio match. Rodgers has played in a 4-3-3 in every match so far this season so that is once again likely. The midfield three of O’Riley, McGregor and Hatate is such an important part to this team’s success as they will be the ones controlling the buildup in the middle of the park.
Simeone will likely allow for Celtic to have possession in this one, so the midfield three will need to do their part, and the center back pairing of Scales and Carter-Vickers will have their hands full with the counter attacking expertise that Atlético have done so well throughout the years.
Atletico Madrid
Simeone has his men playing exactly how he wants them to, defend deep and then play through their opponent with the quality of players they have. They have been one of the best defensive sides in Europe for a long time, and the 5-3-2 formation that Simeone has utilized has allowed them to be much more effective going forward.
This formation allows for Atlético to maintain that defensive stability with the quality of defenders that they have, but this now allows for Atlético to counter quickly out wide with the versatile wing backs that they have been playing.
Having players like Llorente and Lino out wide allows for them to get it out wide and push up the pitch much quicker than they used to. This balance that Simeone has found has been one of the main factors as to why they have won six straight matches. This, as well as Antoine Griezmann playing at a world-class level.
Atlético will not press at all, which has been shown in their league form and in the Champions League so far. They have accumulated 14.3 PPDA in La Liga, the second-highest in the league. They are so defensively sound that they do not mind letting the opponent play into their hands, which is why they have only allowed 8.4 xGA in La Liga up to this point.
Celtic will be playing directly into Atlético’s hands if they try to play around them and break through their low block for the entirety of the match. Simeone’s men simply have too much quality and are far too disciplined to let a team of lesser quality beat them in that way.
Celtic vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
Champions League Odds & Picks
I anticipate Celtic to be on the front foot immediately. They are at Celtic Park and in front of their fans who will be begging for some points if they are looking to get out of this group.
This is exactly what Simeone will want so they can catch Celtic on the break. I think this sets up to be a high scoring affair because of the way I anticipate Celtic to play given how desperate they are for points.
Both sides have had three or more goals in eight of their 11 matches so far, and I anticipate more of the same in this fixture.
I not only see value on over 2.5, but I love the spot given Celtic need to win this match.
