Celtic vs. RB Leipzig Odds
| Celtic Odds | +200 |
| Leipzig Odds | +120 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-175 / +137) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds via Bet365. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
RB Leipzig travel to Glasgow for a crucial Champions League match against Celtic that could see them go to second place in the group.
RB Leipzig seemed to have found their form under Marco Rose, winning two of their last three matches, including a 3-1 win over Celtic in Leipzig just six days ago.
The Red Bulls drew 1-1 with Mainz in the Bundesliga over the weekend and still sit in the middle of the table. This is a must-win scenario if Leipzig want to get out of this group and into the knockout stage.
Celtic have their backs against the wall after their first three Champions League matches. The Scottish champions are sitting with just one point, but there is still a path for them to get out of this group. However, this is an all-in spot that they must win if they want any progressing.
Muted Expectations for Celtic?
It’s not going to show up in the final xG, but Celtic was right with Leipzig until the dumb goalkeeping mistake by Joe Hart. Final xThreat was 1.7 to 1.1 in favor of Leipzig. They did dominate the match in terms of field tilt, but Celtic did force nine high turnovers, and RB Leipzig has been bad in transition defense, as they’ve allowed the most goals off of counterattacks in the Bundesliga.
Celtic did take advantage of their chances because they had a whopping 16 passes into the penalty area, but were able to create only 1.2 xG off it. If you look at the rolling xG chart of the match, Celtic was winning the match up until a Joe Hart mistake that led to an easy Andre Silva goal.
Leipzig 3 : 1 Celtic
▪ xG: 2.11 – 1.23
▪ xThreat: 1.77 – 1.2
▪ Possession: 58.8% – 41.2%
▪ Field Tilt: 62.8% – 37.2%
▪ Def Line Height: 44.4 – 44.8#msbot_ucl#uclpic.twitter.com/8WZa3b4m5a— markstats bot (@markstatsbot) October 5, 2022
Then from there on, what happens with Celtic is they become very open, and take a lot of chances trying to get back into the match.
Celtic has been cruising in the Scottish Premier League, averaging 2.55 xG per 90 minutes, while allowing only 0.93 xG per 90 minutes. So, this is a perfect buy-low spot for them.
Road Woes for Leipzig
RB Leipzig were deserving 3-1 winners against Celtic, but that doesn't mean some major defensive problems don't exist. If you look at Leipzig's xThreat per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga over the past three years, you'll see a defense that is in decline. In 2020-21, RB Leipzig allowed an xThreat of 1.07. Then in 2021-22 it was 1.15. And this year it is 1.25.
RB Leipzig have also been really poor away from home this season. They are yet to win a road match in the Bundesliga and have allowed 8.1 xG in five matches.
Leipzig have also benefited this season from beating up on the bottom half of the Bundesliga table. They've played five of their nine matches against teams in the top half of the table, and in those five matches, they've created 5.7 xG and allowed 8.3 xG.
Betting Analysis & Pick
This is an absolute all-in spot for Celtic, at home, in front of one of the best crowds in all of Europe. RB Leipzig also will be on a backup goalkeeper for the rest of the season because their captain Peter Gulasci tore his ACL and they are still without Konrad Laimer and Dani Olmo.
I have Celtic projected as a small favorite, so I like the value on the Scottish side at +220 to get some revenge.
The Pick: Celtic +220
