Champions League Best Bets, Picks
The Champions League is back for the round of 16 with some intriguing encounters this week, including Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid and Dortmund vs PSG. Check out our Champions League best bets below.
If you'd like to see our projections for every Champions League match, you can find them here.
| Bayern Munich Odds | +145 |
| Real Madrid Odds | +175 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150o / +120u |
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Cunningham: Bayern Munich were actually really impressive in the second leg against Arsenal with what they were able to do out of possession. They held the Gunners to 0.4 xG mainly because they did not try to press Arsenal high. Instead they sat in a midblock, denied any passes going through the middle of the pitch, and forced Arsenal to beat them from out wide, which is a gameplan they can repeat here against Real Madrid.
What Real Madrid do out of possession is going to be very interesting because it was easy to just hand Manchester City the ball and play on the break, but they were pretty fortunate not to concede in the second leg, as they allowed City to take 33 shots and create 2.7 expected goals. If they do the same thing and play very passively against a Bayern Munich team that has technical and ruthless finishers all over the pitch, it’s going to be really tough to see how they don’t concede a lot of chances.
The price on this is way too high on Real Madrid. I only have them at -118 to advance and Bayern Munich’s underlying metrics have been significantly better than them, as they have a +1.68 xGD per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga, compared to Real Madrid’s +0.97 xGD in La Liga.
I like Bayern Munich to advance to the final at +162.
Pick: Bayern Munich to Advance (+162 via bet365)
| Dortmund Odds | +187 |
| PSG Odds | +137 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -200o / +162u |
Dabbundo: PSG and Borussia Dortmund met twice in the Champions League group stage and the French side comfortably cleared two expected goals in both matchups. First legs in the CL knockouts generally have been lower event matches since the away goal rule was eliminated, but this is an excellent stylistic matchup for PSG.
Luis Enrique’s side has consistently excelled in transition when playing in Europe this year and the second matchup in Dortmund on the final day of the group showed how vulnerable the German defense is at ball stopping and winning in the midfield. Not only have Dortmund lost the expected goals battle in eight of 10 CL matchups this year, but they rank sixth in xGA in Germany and have conceded at least 1.5 xG in the majority of their CL matches.
Enrique set up his side to attack from the jump in both CL first legs this year and I expect a relatively open and high scoring matchup on Wednesday. I’d bet PSG to score multiple goals at -130 or better.
