Champions League Best Bets, Picks
The Champions League is back for the second leg semifinals with everything on the line for matches including PSG vs Dortmund and Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich. Check out our Champions League best bets below.
If you'd like to see our projections for every Champions League match, you can find them here.
| PSG Odds | -225 |
| Dortmund Odds | +650 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225o / +175u |
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Dabbundo: There was only one goal scored in the first leg of Borussia Dortmund vs PSG Champions League semifinal last week, but the underlying metrics and eye test suggested that the match was considerably more open and featured way more goal scoring chances than the final 1-0 scoreline. There were 63 total touches in the penalty area, 32 for Dortmund and 31 for PSG. Neither team was good defensively out of possession and transition defense has been a frequent problem for both clubs all season long.
The match ended with 3.4 expected goals and PSG even hit the post twice in rapid succession in the second half. Dortmund found a ton of success exploiting PSG in wide areas through Jadon Sancho, who frequently took the ball from deep areas and progressed it into dangerous positions while facing little resistance.
The onus is on PSG to create from the opening kickoff at home now that they’re trailing by a goal, and Dortmund have shown all year long in the Bundesliga that they are quite mediocre defensively. Dortmund rank just ninth in xG allowed in Germany and I have little faith in their defense to hold up under pressure on the road. PSG posted 2.4 xG, 2.8 and 1.7 in the three meetings in this CL against Dortmund.
I expect PSG to win this match and turn the tie around at home, but Dortmund are plenty live to get a goal or two themselves. For that reason, I’d bet both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at -130 or better.
Pick: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 (-130)
| Real Madrid Odds | -110 |
| Bayern Munich Odds | +260 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175o / +137u |
Cunningham: Bayern Munich were really good in the first leg in Munich and did something a little different to Real Madrid’s low block than what Manchester City tried. Manchester City were obsessed with beating Real Madrid through the middle of the pitch, which didn’t really work for 120 minutes until Los Blancos got worn out. Bayern instead were attacking from the outside inward and were finding lanes through the half space after trying to create overloads in the wide areas.
In the end, Bayern didn’t end up creating any high quality chances from an expected goals standpoint, but they did pin Real Madrid into their final third and did a really effective job at getting the ball into the penalty area. Bayern doubled Real Madrid in terms of box entries, 20 to 10, and double the amount of passes completed in the final third half spaces than their opponents as well.
Real Madrid didn’t really create much in the match outside of the two mistakes by Kim Min Jae. In fact, the rest of their seven shots only yielded a total of 0.52 xG, which comes back to the point that Bayern Munich have now proven themselves to be incredibly effective in their passive mid-block. They made it incredibly difficult for Real Madrid to play through them and they did a masterful job at limiting Real Madrid where they hurt you the most, which is in transition.
Real Madrid had 20.8% final third to box entry conversion rate against Bayern Munich in the first leg, which is low compared to their average in La Liga of 27.8%.
Real Madrid are also outstanding front runners when they are able to play passively and let their amazing attackers play in transition, but in La Liga this season from an even game state they only have a +0.49 xGD per 90 minutes, which kind of highlights that in these types of scenarios, they maybe aren’t an elite team tactically.
I only have Real Madrid projected at +118, so I like the value on Bayern Munich +0.5 at -103.
