Champions League Best Bets, Picks
The Champions League is back for the round of 16 with some intriguing encounters this week, including Barcelona vs PSG and Man City vs Real Madrid. Check out our Champions League best bets below.
If you'd like to see our projections for every Champions League match, you can find them here.
| Barcelona Odds | +115 |
| PSG Odds | +190 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -250o / +200u |
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Dabbundo: PSG finished the first leg with more shots attempted and more touches in the opposition penalty area, even though they lost the match on both xG created and actual goals. Barcelona's inability to defend out of possession leaves the door plenty open for PSG to play its way back into the tie in the second leg. Barcelona did an excellent job of slowing down Kylian Mbappé in the first leg, but a repeat of that performance could be difficult.
The lack of midfield ball stopping and winning in the open field has left major holes in Barcelona's transition defense in the last few months. If you look at La Liga data, Barcelona are dead last in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed. Once teams progress the ball into Barca's defensive final third, they're highly efficient at turning that into dangerous possession and shots.
The French side played the first leg without star wing back Achraf Hakimi, who was suspended and will return for the second leg. PSG have played nine Champions League matches this season, including the first leg. The 40 touches in the opposition box they had in the first leg was the second most they had in any of those nine matches. The only match where PSG had more was a 1-1 draw with Newcastle where they totaled 4.4 xG. If anything, the French side was uncharacteristically inefficient and is likely to produce more chances and maybe even goals in this second leg.
PSG scored twice in the first leg despite extremely inefficient attacking in the penalty area and a quiet game from Mbappé. Down a goal on the road, PSG will be pushing for goals from the opening kickoff and they're well set up to score in this match. I'd bet PSG team total over 1.5 at -110 or better. Major questions remain about PSG's defense as well, but the attack will threaten Barcelona more and more as the game becomes stretched.
Pick: PSG Team Total Over 1.5 (+104 via FanDuel)
| Man City Odds | -163 |
| Real Madrid Odds | +400 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188o / +15ou |
Cunningham: The first leg between these two was a Golazo fest, but it actually ended up being a very even encounter.
Manchester City really weren’t that great offensively. They only took 12 shots with only four of them coming inside the penalty area. More than anything, they completely neutralized Erling Haaland, as he only had 18 touches (only four in the penalty area) and just one shot for the match.
Since this is tied on aggregate, Real Madrid get to play exactly how they want to here where they can play passively out of possession, play a solid defensive block just like they did in the first leg and get themselves into good transition moments.
Something bad is happening with Manchester City defensively and Pep doesn’t seem to want to make any changes, but they are incredibly vulnerable in transition. Because City build up in a very narrow shape and are pushing Rodri and whoever inverts alongside him farther up the pitch to try and overload the opposing backline, it often leaves them in a 3 v 3 situation and their defenders simply are struggling to stop the opposing attack.
Getting beat in transition time and time again also comes down to the fact that City are not as effective with their counter-pressing as they were last year. Manchester City are ninth in PPDA, 11th in opponent build up completion percentage allowed and ninth in long ball completion percentage allowed. If you are going to get yourself into 3 v 3 situations in transition against Rodrygo, Vinicius Junior and Bellingham you are screwed, especially with how good of dribblers and passers Real Madrid have.
I only have City projected at -203 to advance, so I like the value on Real Madrid to advance at +260.
