Tuesday Champions League Betting Odds, Prediction & Picks: Chelsea vs. Sevilla (Oct. 20)

Chelsea vs. Sevilla Odds

Odds as of Tuesday at 12:30 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The Champions League returns on Tuesday with the opening matches of the group stage, with Europa League champions Sevilla visiting West London to take on Chelsea.

The Blues have had a rocky start to their Premier League campaign, dropping points to Southampton and West Brom, while losing to Liverpool. They’re slowly integrating new signings into their first XI, but Chelsea’s defensive fragilities remain an issue, much like they were at the end of last season.

Sevilla

Sevilla has proven itself as one of the toughest outs in all of Europe for the second half of the 2010s. Their defensive style and a willingness to concede possession while not allowing high quality chances, has made them a difficult side to break down for years. They are consistently top four finishers in La Liga.

Despite a disappointing performance to Granada (0.4-1.7 loss on xG), Sevilla started the 2020 season with three good performances, including a 1-1 draw at Barcelona. They also went to extra time with Bayern Munich in the UEFA Super Cup. Sevilla beat Roma, Wolves, Manchester United and Inter en route to the Europa League title in August.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Sevilla has the fifth-best defensive record in the league through four matches, and will have no problems using the blueprint to beating Chelsea on Tuesday. Sit deep, allow the Blues to have possession, and break through on the counter by exposing Chelsea’s inconsistent defensive abilities.

Chelsea

I was one of many who entered the 2020 season with high expectations for Chelsea. It’s only been five matches, but the Blues look much like they did in the 2019-20 season.

Thin in the defensive midfield, constant defensive miscues on set pieces and poor goalkeeper play from Kepa Arrizabalaga. The Blues score goals for fun, and I maintain that this will be enough to get them in the top four. But Sevilla is a matchup nightmare for them.

West Ham, Sheffield United and Manchester United have given Sevilla the blueprint on how to beat this Chelsea team, and I’m not sure the Blues have corrected any of their issues against counterattacking teams. Chelsea had more than 60% of the ball in all of those matches, yet took one point from a possible 18 in those matches.

Sevilla used a similar blueprint to beat United in the EL semifinals, where Man United had most of the possession, but set pieces and counters did in the Red Devils. The Blues are allowing more than one expected goal per match this season.

Prediction

I project Chelsea as +130 favorites in this match, and show some value on Sevilla to win or draw. Given the tactical advantage for Sevilla, I’ll take them to get at least a point from this match to kick off their Champions League campaign.

The Pick: Sevilla +0.5 (-120)

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