Atalanta vs. Liverpool Champions League Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions (Tuesday, Nov. 3)

Atalanta vs. Liverpool Odds

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When the Champions League groups were drawn and the schedule was released, the first set of matches I looked forward to was the back-to-back meetings between Italian darlings Atalanta and reigning English champions Liverpool.

Atalanta made a run all the way to the Champions League quarterfinals last season and were minutes from the semifinal before PSG scored a pair of late, heartbreaking goals. Liverpool were the European champions in 2019 and reigned over the Premier League last season in dominant fashion.

If I was trying to get anyone interested in watching soccer, this is a game I’d show them. Liverpool travel to Bergamo with first place in Group D on the line.

Atalanta

Not many casual fans know much about them, but they are one of Europe’s most exciting watches. Atalanta play open, attacking football and concede lots of goals. The start of the 2020 season has been a mixed bag for the boys from Bergamo, but they still sit fourth in Serie A despite having conceded 13 goals in six games.

Over the past two seasons in Serie A, Atalanta has had the best underlying numbers in the league, better than Juventus. By expected goal difference (xGD), no one is better than manager Gian Piero Gasperini’s side.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Atalanta love to press high, playing a back three with an overlapping center-backs tactic going forward. Up top, they have four awesome attackers up front that score goals for fun. With the return of striker Josip Ilicic, Atalanta's attack becomes even more lethal.

Through six league games, Atalanta is third in Serie A non-penalty xGD and second in xG. They’ve shown no signs of slowing down in Europe and have dominated both games in the Champions League so far, despite settling for a 2-2 draw with Ajax last week.

Betting against Atalanta has been a mistake for a while now, and this is a home run spot for them in their biggest game of the season so far.

Liverpool

One major factor to consider in this game for Liverpool is that they have claimed two wins from their first two group-stage games and have a hugely important Premier League game against Manchester City this weekend. This is a brutal spot for the Reds, whose performances haven't been great in the Champions League.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see some Liverpool rotation in the Reds' midfield and attack to preserve them for the weekend.

Under manager Jurgen Klopp, Liverpool’s results away from home in the Champions League have been underwhelming, and they were very fortunate to win their first group game at Ajax despite a lackluster showing. They won, 1-0, thanks to an own goal and were outplayed for the majority of the game.

In the Premier League, Liverpool’s results haven’t been anything to admire, but the performances have continued to be excellent since Virgil van Djik suffered a serious knee injury. The Reds are first in the English top flight in xGD and top of the league table, one point ahead of Leicester City.

They’re blowing away the rest of the Premier League in passes into the penalty area, and you could make a case they have the two best wide forwards in the league in Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane.

Atalanta-Liverpool Pick

Both sides have a tactical advantage that can be exploited by the other’s attack. Atalanta’s high-pressing style is prone to long balls that are knocked down in front, and Roberto Firmino, Mane and Salah are all excellent at playing this way when needed. This ability will create opportunities for Liverpool to attack Atalanta and play over its press.

But Atalanta also poses unique challenges to Liverpool, and I think Reds right back Trent Alexander-Arnold and whichever center backs Klopp chooses to play will be tested. Atalanta’s ability to overload one side and potentially pick on Alexander-Arnold, who is questionable defensively, could lead to Atalanta creating advantageous situations going forward. Duvan Zapata pushes wide to join Robin Gosens up the wing, while Alejandro Gomez fills for Zapata. It will be a fascinating tactical battle, as much as I’m expecting a wide open game.

I consider Liverpool a better team and price them at +130 here, but the opportunity to play Atalanta as a big home underdog is too good to pass up. Liverpool being without Van Dijk and Fabinho, which will test their defensive depth.

Give me Atalanta for the win.

The PICK: Atalanta ML (+210)