Champions League Betting Odds & Predictions: Our Best Bets For Liverpool-Rangers, Ajax-Napoli & More

The Champions League returns on Tuesday with a host of European matches set to unfold. 

Two of our soccer experts have derived best bets from the fixtures that will be played from Group A and Group B in the competition, featuring teams such as Liverpool, Atletico Madrid and Napoli.

Read on for BJ Cunningham and Nick Hennion's best bets for the two groups.

Our 4 Champions League Best Bets

Liverpool vs. Rangers

This is strictly a price play for me as I believe it provides a perfect buy-low spot on the Liverpool offense.

Through two UCL group fixtures, manager Jurgen Klopp’s side has generated only 3.63 expected goals on target (xGOT) and two big scoring chances. But, those metrics have come against two defenses that are significantly superior to this Rangers defensive unit.

Against Napoli and Ajax, Rangers have conceded seven goals on 6.13 xGOT and a whopping nine big scoring chances. In their visit to the Netherlands in the latter fixture, Rangers conceded four goals on 2.46 xGOT and four big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.

Those kinds of metrics won’t hold up against a Liverpool attack that has created 2.10 xGOT per 90 minutes and 3.2 big scoring chances per 90 in five EPL + UCL fixtures so far this season.

Although I question whether Liverpool’s defense can hold a desperate Rangers side, I would play this at +100 or better.

Hennion's Pick: Liverpool -2.5 (+110)

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Club Brugge vs. Atletico Madrid

Listen, I get that Club Brugge put up 2.9 xG against Porto and that they beat Leverkusen, so naturally they should be able to pound Atletico Madrid right? Wrong.

In Brugge’s first two matches, they have taken eight shots from inside the penalty area. Four of them have gone in (not counting the penalty) and they’ve created 3.6 xG on an xThreat of 2.3 and Porto had a field tilt of 61% in that match.

On average last season, Atletico allowed only 6.1 shots per 90 from inside the penalty area. Only Manchester City, Liverpool, Paris Saint-Germain, Bayern Munich, Napoli and Getafe had a better average.

I have to point out that Brugge played Standard Liege in the Belgian Pro League and got pounded 3-0 before the international break, and that is important because Simone has switched Atletico to a 3-5-2, which is the same formation and style that Liege plays.

Atletico put in a great performance against Sevilla on the weekend, created their highest xG output of the season at 2.3 and their lowest allowed at 0.5.

We see Simeone as a conservative manager, but last season in La Liga they had a higher average defensive line than Real Madrid and had the third best field tilt %, so I have no doubt in my mind that Atletico will dominate possession in this match against an inexperienced Brugge back line that has two teenagers in it.

Also, let me remind you since the start of last season in the Belgium Pro League, Brugge is only at a +0.54 xGD per 90 minutes.

So, this is an awfully cheap price on Atletico.

Cunningham's Pick: Atletico Madrid ML

Ajax vs. Napoli

Goals are expected Tuesday in Amsterdam and I tend to agree with that assessment.

Put simply, I don’t know how Ajax’s defense limits the Napoli attack. In two group stage matches, the Italian outfit has created 9.85 xGOT and generated 14 big scoring chances. It also sits second in the Italian top-flight in xG and big scoring chances.

For me, I’m selling an Ajax defense that has conceded only 1.98 xGOT against Liverpool and Rangers as I believe Napoli – even without Victor Osimhen – are going to be a huge problem for the hosts.

That said, don’t discount Ajax’s ability to generate scoring chances on their home turf. Across their last nine home group stage UCL games, Ajax have generated 1.68 xG/90 minutes and have failed to reach one xG only twice.

For all of Napoli’s success offensively, they are still a negative regression candidate defensively entering this fixture. Against Liverpool and Rangers, manager Luciano Spalletti’s side has conceded just one goal on 2.24 xGOT.

For those reasons, I’ll back this over so long as you can get it at -130 or better.

Hennion's Pick: Over 3

Porto vs. Bayer Leverkusen

I’ll be honest, I don’t know how Porto were defeated so badly by Club Brugge, but either way it’s now desperation time for them after losing their first two matches.

They were by far the better team in the match against Atletico Madrid, winning on xG 1.7 to 0.7. They've also been dominating the Portuguese league, as they already have a +11.9 xGD in their first eight matches. Porto just hosted a red-hot Braga side that was riding an eight match win streak in all competitions.

Porto obliterated them 4-1, and out-created them on xG 4.5 to 0.6, creating eight big scoring chances.

Leverkusen are coming off of getting dismantled by Bayern Munich and are still in the relegation zone in the Bundesliga despite basically having an even xG differential. If you look at the timing of when Leverkusen created their chances against Atletico, three of their four big scoring chances came after the 70th minute, when they were able to start opening up the match.

This is the same argument I made when talking about the Frankfurt/Sporting match and it’s that the gap between Germany in Portugal is not that wide.

I have Porto projected at -155, and I'm taking the Portuguese side at +115.

Cunningham's Pick: Porto ML