It's been over three months, but the Champions League is back!
BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the latest set of contests with their best bets on the slate, including PSG vs. Bayern Munich.
The pair, part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be taking you through the Champions League fixtures, delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.
If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.
Cunningham's Model Projections
PSG vs. Bayern Munich
| PSG Odds | +155 |
| Bayern Munich Odds | +160 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-188 / +150) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | CBS |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Dabbundo: I'm not targeting a side in this matchup because it is a true coin flip game in Paris. Bayern are the better team but they are away from home against a dangerous PSG side, particularly in transition.
Bayern's attack has struggled a bit coming out of the World Cup break and both attacks are generally overvalued in the betting market to begin with. The loss of Robert Lewandowski for this Bayern attack means that their average shot distance length is higher. Their xG per shot is lower, they create fewer big scoring chances and the attack has struggled when facing better defenses.
Bayern produced just 1.7 xG combined in two matches against Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga. They've had more draws in Germany this year than normal — some of it is variance but part of it is regression from losing Lewandowski. As much as PSG advanced comfortably out of the CL group stage, the underlying performances were not that of an attacking juggernaut.
Even with Kylian Mbappé in the lineup, PSG managed 1.5, 1.0, 1.2 and 0.5 xG in four matches against Benfica and Juventus — the two other top European teams in the group stage.
Galtier has done an excellent job of fixing the defensive issues that did persist at times under Mauricio Pochettino. PSG will concede plenty of low quality shots and trust that Gianluigi Donnarumma will use his plus shot-stopping to keep those low quality chances out.
They rank first in France in big scoring chances allowed and defend the penalty area very well. With Chrisotophe Galtier and Julian Nagelsmann willing to play out a stalemate due to injuries and game theory, that presents value on the under.
You could see this total move up as we get closer to kickoff, especially after Messi gets announced in. My projections make this total right at 3 and thus under 3.25 or better is enough for me to bet on.
Pick: Under 3.25 (-129 via BetRivers)
Club Brugge vs. Benfica
| Club Brugge Odds | +333 |
| Benfica Odds | -120 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-125 / +100) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Cunningham: Out of the World Cup break, Brugge have won one single match in the Belgian Pro League, and for the season they only have a +0.35 xGD per 90 minutes. Scott Parker is now in charge, and that hasn't been going well.
Brugge somehow got out of a group with Porto, Leverkusen and Atletico Madrid with a -3.8 xGD. The reason for that was because Simon Mignolet played out of his mind in net, putting up a +5.7 post shot xG +/-. The one match they got routed was by fellow Portuguese side Porto.
Benfica are the best team outside of Europe's top five leagues and they have put up unbelievable underlying metrics in the Portuguese Primiera Liga. They have a +1.93 xGD and are averaging 2.54 xG per 90 minutes.
They were incredibly impressive during the group stage and were able to overtake PSG on the final day. Benfica drew PSG twice and for the entirety of the group stage had a +3.5 xGD. Benfica did lose their best midfielder Enzo Fernandez at the transfer deadline, but this is a team stacked with talent across the board.
Per transfermarkt.com, Benfica's total squad transfer value is $277.5 million, while Brugge are only at $173.75 million. Additionally, Brugge could be without two of their best players i Andreas Skov Olsen and Ferran Jutglà.
I have Benfica projected at -198, so I love the value on them to get a win in the first leg on the road at -115.
Pick: Benfica ML (-115 via PointsBet)
