Champions League Expert Predictions & Champions League New Format Preview

The Champions League draw is completed and we know everyone's schedule for the league phase of the Champions League. The old group stage format has been axed to make way for a new more exciting league phase that will be discussed in detail below.

These are my Champions League expert predictions taking the Champions League new format into account.

Make sure to follow all of our Champions League coverage throughout the season here and on Youtube, and make sure to subscribe to the Wondergoal podcast for episodes all season long. Also if you like to see my projections for every Premier League match you can find them here. 

Champions League New Format

A new "league phase" has replaced the old group stage format and the number of teams also increases from 32 to 36. The league phase will be very similar to a traditional domestic table like you'd see in the Premier League. Teams are going to play eight total matches in the league phase with four being at home and four being away.

For the draw, teams have been placed into four different pots based on the UEFA coefficient. Each team will play two matches (one at home and one away) against each of the different pots, creating more big matches during the league phase.

A software drew the schedules for each team at random with a couple of stipulations. First, no team can play someone from their own country, which means someone like Arsenal cannot play Manchester City, Liverpool or Aston Villa. Second, each can only play a maximum of two opponents from another country.

Teams that finish in the top eight spots of table will automatically qualify for the round of 16. Teams that finish from ninth to 24th in the table will be each be paired to face an opponent in a two leg playoff to qualify for the round of 16. Teams 9-16 will be seeded so that whoever goes through will face the corresponding seed. For example, the top seed will play the 16th seed, the two seed will play the 15th seed and so on and so forth.

Teams that finish in 25th to 36th in the league phase will be eliminated from the competition and will no longer drop down to the Europa League.

Once we reach the round of 16 the format will be the same as past Champions Leagues with two leg ties until the final.

Champions League Expected Points

With the new league phase, below are the expected points for each team based on my projections.

Champions League Futures

Celtic to Finish in 9-24 position (+162 via bet365)

The team that got the most favorable draw in the new format was Celtic. They get to play two of the lower end teams in Pot 1 in RB Leipzig and Dortmund, but most importantly they avoided almost all of the heavy hitters in pots 2-4.

Celtic won the Scottish Premier League in convincing fashion last season, only losing three matches in total domestically and posting a +1.24 xGD per 90 minutes because of how good they were defensively. Under Brenden Rogers they only allowed 0.55 xG per 90 minutes, which is the best mark of anyone in the Champions League.

They were in a tough group last season in the Champions League with Atletico Madrid, Lazio, and Feyenoord where they ended up finishing last with pretty bad expected metrics. However, they were underdogs in all six of those matches. My projections have them favored in matches over Young Boys, Slovan Bratislava, Club Brugge and Dinamo Zagreb. In total I have them projected for 12.55 points, which puts them well clear of the bottom 12 teams.

So, I love the value on Celtic to finish in 9-24 seeds during the league phase.

Champions League Pick: Celtic to Finish 9-24 in League Stage (+162 via bet365)

Leverkusen to Finish in Top 8 (+125 via bet365)

Leverkusen are coming off a historic season under Xabi Alonso, losing only one match during the 2023-24 season with a boat load of late winners and equalizers along the way.

They take advantage of the concept of “vacated space” better than anyone in the world. If you want to press them, they will constantly have three man combinations to play quickly right through you and be running right at your back line.

What makes them so difficult to prepare for is unlike Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City, who mainly play through the middle or Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal, who mainly play through the wide channels, Leverkusen can build up through any part of the pitch and their players are so well drilled to understanding this that it makes it incredibly difficult for opposing defenses to stop them. The only team that beat them was Atalanta and it's because they went with an uber-aggressive man to man high press and it shut Leverkusen down. There are very few teams in the world that can pull that off and Liverpool are really the only team in the league phase than can do that to them.

The concept of "overload to isolate" is massive in Alonso's build up. Overloading one side of the pitch to create space for a switch ball to the advancing fullback is something they do time and time again, which is really hard to defend.

What Leverkusen also showed last season is they can be versatile. When they played Bayern Munich in the second meeting, Xabi Alonso switched his team to a 5-3-2 and mainly had them playing in transition, which stifled Bayern and allowed them to win the match 3-0. That's very important in the Champions League because they are not going to control a majority of the possession and be able to build out of the back with success every single match like they are able to do in the Bundesliga.

They have two tough matches against Inter and Liverpool, but they will be heavy favorites in their remaining six matches. I have them projected for 14.48 points and to finish as the seventh seed, so I don't think they should be plus money to finish in the top eight.

Champions League Pick: Leverkusen to finish in Top 8 (+125 via bet365)

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Young Boys to Finish Bottom of League Phase (+800 via bet365)

Young Boys were able to beat Galatasaray in the Champions League qualification playoffs, but were pretty fortunate to do so, conceding almost four expected goals over the two legs. They were in a group with Manchester City, RB Leipzig, and Red Star Belgrade last season and were one of the worst teams in the competition.

Over their six matches they conceded 15.3 expected goals, which was second worst to only Benfica. They also only created 6.4 expected goals in total with 3.9 of those 6.4 expected goals coming solely against Red Star Belgrade.

Things are currently not going well for them in the Swiss Super League either. They are currently at the bottom of the table with two draws and three losses to open the season. They have new manager Patrick Rahmen, who has managed multiple clubs in Switzerland, including FC Basel. He has a very traditional way of playing, having Young Boys playing out of a 4-4-2, looking to overload the wings to create chances out wide, which in theory gives them the best chance in the Champions League. However, the talent disparity between them and the teams they are going to play is pretty drastic.

Per transfermarkt.com, Young Boys have a total squad transfer value of $63.2 million, which is third-lowest in the competition behind only Slovan Bratislava and Sturm Graz.

Their underlying metrics really weren't that impressive last season in Switzerland, only having a +0.42 xGD per 90 minutes in the 16th-most difficult league in Europe per UEFA coefficients. So far through five matches this season they have a negative expected goal differential and are conceding 1.86 xG per 90 minutes.

They are going to be underdogs in every single match, so I don't really see why they shouldn't be the second-favorite behind Slovan Bratislava to finish at the bottom of the league phase.

Pick: Young Boys to Finish Bottom of League Phase (+800 via bet365)