Only eight candidates remain and after Liverpool — the heavy-favorite — was sent away, the odds have shifted in favor of Spanish arch-rivals Barcelona and Real Madrid, who will go through different sides of the bracket en route to a possible dream final at the Allianz Arena in Munich on May 31.
So, which teams have the best Champions League odds? And who will win the Champions League Final?
Let's dig into this market at Kalshi, which operates more like the stock market than a traditional sportsbook.
Champions League Odds
Under this year's new format, the road to the final was established after the Round of 16 draw. Liverpool's fall from grace, Barcelona's steadiness and PSG's emergence are important factors in these updated Champions League odds.
The Spanish sides were the big winners of the past round and are left as the most popular choices to lift the trophy. Barcelona won both games against Benfica and will now face Borussia Dortmund before potentially clashing with Bayern Munich or Inter in the semifinals. It's a tough path, but that's expected at this stage of the tournament.
Real Madrid had to go to penalties against Atlético, but its resiliency and powerhouse presence will always keep the club at the top of anyone's candidate list. Arsenal, which easily disposed of PSV, will now face Real Madrid. The Gunners eliminated Real Madrid the last time they met in this tournament, but that was 19 years ago in the 2006 Round of 16.
After beating Liverpool on penalties, PSG rose in the rankings and gained support. Bayern, another usual favorite, left behind the weak image it presented versus Celtic in the past round and pummeled Bayer Leverkusen in both matches to advance.
At this point, the only huge surprise would be to see Aston Villa make its way to Munich. So, pick a team to win it all, or fade a team you lack confidence in. At Kalshi, you can do it all.
Champions League Bracket
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
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