Champions League Best Bets, Picks
The Champions League is back for the round of 16 with some intriguing encounters this week, including Real Madrid vs Man City and PSG vs Barcelona. Check out our Champions League best bets below.
If you'd like to see our projections for every Champions League match, you can find them here.
| Real Madrid Odds | +180 |
| Manchester City Odds | +145 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +107 |
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Dabbundo: Real Madrid's defensive numbers in the second half of the La Liga season are quite encouraging for their chances of holding out a potent Manchester City attack that can hit you in different ways. From the beginning of the season through Jan. 1, Real Madrid conceded an average of 1.1 expected goals per match in Spain. Since the turn of the new year, that number has lowered to 0.8 per match. Those major improvements have helped them continue to win week in and week out in La Liga even as Jude Bellingham's unsustainable early season goal scoring run has cooled off.
Even though Manchester City are likely to have more of the possession than Real Madrid in this match, City defenses have been allowing their opponents more time on the ball than past versions of City. This version of City doesn't press and suffocate opponents with the same fervor of years past. That will give an option to Real Madrid as to how much risk they're willing to take with the ball, and how many players they'll send forward. As dangerous as Vinicius Junior, Bellingham and Rodrygo are on the break, City will constantly have players behind the ball regardless of how many they attack with in possession.
Last season, Manchester City had just 19 touches in the Real Madrid penalty area in the first leg, which was the fourth-lowest of any match they played in all competitions. The only matches with fewer touches were City's second leg against Bayern (already up 3-0 on aggregate), the away match to Copenhagen (dead rubber plus early City red card) and the final against Inter Milan.
The under is now 28-7-1 (80%) in the Champions League first leg knockout ties since the away goal rule was abandoned ahead of the 2021-22 European season. Given that Manchester City aren't pressing as much as years past, Real Madrid won't want to lose the tie on home soil, City are likely to be extremely cautious in possession with how many players they will send forward and this is a first leg, I'd bet the under and expect a lower event first leg.
Pick: Under 2.5 (+112 via FanDuel)
| PSG Odds | -110 |
| Barcelona Odds | +275 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150 / +115 |
Cunningham: Barcelona have really improved defensively recently, as they've only allowed one goal over their last six matches and what has made the biggest difference in 17 year old Pau Cubarsí. In the 11 matches where he's played a majority of the match, Barcelona are only allowed 0.83 xG per 90 minutes, which is improvement from the 1.16 xG per 90 minutes they were allowing before he was inserted into the lineup.
The second leg against Napoli also showed how dangerous Barcelona can be when they attack teams directly. They have so much pace and outstanding ball carriers to put pressure on PSG's backline. Lamine Yamal has been dazzling as a 16-year-old in both La Liga and the Champions League. He has been incredibly good dribbling 1 v 1 against the opposing fullback to create a chance in the box as he has completed 13 crosses into the penalty area, which is the most on Barcelona this season.
Barcelona also got some positive injury news heading into this first leg as Frankie De Jong will make his return to the lineup after missing an extended period of time.
PSG have been on cruise control in Ligue 1, but their defensive performances really haven't been that good. Since January 14th, PSG have allowed 18.7 expected goals in 11 matches, but have only conceded 10 actual goals. The problem is that they've continued to to be really aggressive with their high press, but when it doesn't hit home, good build up teams are exposing them.
Of course Kylian Mbappe can wreck this match at a moment's notice, but Barcelona have been the significantly better defensive team recently and are getting one of their most important players back from injury, so I like the value on them +0.5 at -109.
