Porto vs. AC Milan Odds & Betting Pick: Can Porto Get a Result in Competitive Champions League Group?

Porto vs. AC Milan Odds

The most competitive group of the entire Champions League makes its return on Tuesday, as Porto hosts AC Milan with both teams in desperate need of points if they want to advance to the knockout stage.

Porto settled for a 0-0 draw in the opening matchweek against Atlético despite being the better side for most of the match, while Milan lost a 3-2 thriller at Liverpool. In matchweek 2, Porto and Milan both lost at home in very different fashions. Porto suffered its only home defeat in nine matches when it lost 5-1 to Liverpool, and Milan tossed away a 1-0 lead to lose 2-1 after a controversial red card and penalty were awarded to Atlético Madrid.

Porto sits on one point and Milan zero ahead of the upcoming home and away ties these two teams will play against one another in the coming weeks. Milan has the more talented team, but it is facing an injury crisis and hasn't been able to transfer its Serie A success into the Champions League.

Playing at home with its consistently rock solid defense, Porto is undervalued to win this match given how shorthanded Milan is in midfield and attack. 

Expect Effective Defensive Work From Porto

Porto's 5-1 defeat to Liverpool at home in matchweek 2 put a serious dent in its chances of qualifying from Group B. Throw in Atletico Madrid's 2-1 win at Milan and Porto now needs to win at least one of its games against Milan to have a shot at advancing.

The 5-1 loss looks and is really bad, but historically, Porto has had very little success against the Reds in Europe. Liverpool has now outscored them 16-2 in the last five meetings between the two clubs since the 2017-18 season.

Porto did not have Chancel Mbemba or Pepe for that game — two of its first-choice center backs — and Dragões' young goalkeeper Diogo Costa made multiple mistakes that led directly to two Liverpool goals. He recently ousted former keeper Agustin Marchesin from the starting XI, and while Costa has shown a lot of promise in goal for Porto, his poor showing in that match ended Porto's hopes of an upset.

Pepe will be back in the lineup to shore up the Porto defense and Mbemba may be fit enough to start. The expected return of Marchesin to the lineup in goal should further help Porto's defense in the short-term as well, as he will assist with limiting the unnecessary mistakes in the back line.

AC Milan's Struggling in Champions League Affairs

AC Milan has had an excellent start to the 2021-22 season in Serie A, with the second-best expected goal difference in the Italian top flight. Milan was a bit fortunate at the weekend in a 3-2 comeback win against Verona as it was aided by a penalty and a late own goal to secure all three points. But the Rossoneri also outplayed Atalanta and Lazio comfortably in wins over fellow Champions League competitors earlier this season.

The success hasn't translated over to the Champions League, though, where they were outplayed badly by Liverpool in large stretches and crumbled after a first half red card against Atletico Madrid. Milan has no points in the CL and is now facing a bit of an injury crisis entering this match.

Goalkeeper Mike Maignan, who's been excellent this year and helped Milan outperform their defensive numbers, is out. Brahim Díaz and Theo Hernández are also expected to miss the contest after positive COVID-19 tests. Zlatan Ibrahimović is working his way back to full fitness and is likely to only appear off the bench. Ante Rebic is expected to miss the match with injury, along with Alessando Florenzi.

Milan has an intriguing mix of youth and experience that has meshed together well this year and helped them outperform its talent level. But when Milan went on the road to Liverpool, its Champions League inexperience showed.

Porto won't apply nearly as much pressure to Milan as Liverpool did, but its defense will be very difficult to break down. Milan has struggled at times against teams that look to sit deeper, and that will be tougher now that the Rossoneri won't have a key outlet in the attack with Hernandez on the left wing. The loss of Franck Kessié in the middle of the park to suspension, along with Díaz up top, means that Milan won't have two players who are averaging a combined 1.02 xG + xA per 90 this season.

Milan's Serie A shot profile relies on a high shot volume and a lot of lower quality chances, as the Rossoneri rely on shots from distance more than all but one team in the league (Spezia). It's not likely that trend can continue if Milan wants to advance from this CL group or challenge for a Scudetto.

Betting Analysis & Pick

AC Milan at full strength is the marginally better team, but given the injury situation, the road trip to Portugal and the regression indicators coming for the Milan attack, Porto is undervalued in this match.

The injuries should hurt the Italian side's ability to progress the ball into dangerous attacking areas and get high quality shots. Milan will settle for plenty of shots from distance, which plays right into the strength of the Porto defense. It will open up Milan to counterattacks, and the Rossoneri have started leaking goals recently in Serie A, conceding five goals from its last three in league play.

Anything -125 or better on the draw no bet line and I would recommend a play on the Dragões.

Pick: Porto — Draw No Bet (-125 or better)