Gladbach at Real Madrid
| Gladbach Odds | +410 [BET NOW] |
| Madrid Odds | -136 [BET NOW] |
| Draw | +265 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 3 (-115/-105) |
| Time | Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS All-Access |
When the Champions League draw came out, many expected Group B to be one of the more intriguing of the bunch, but expected Real Madrid and Inter Milan to advance.
After five weeks, Borussia Monchengladbach sits atop the group, and all four teams still have a chance to advance. Gladbach heads to Madrid on Wednesday needing either a draw, or a loss plus an Inter-Shakhtar draw, to advance to the knockout stage.
Madrid needs a win, or a draw plus Inter win, to advance.
Gladbach
I have major concerns about the Foals defense since the injury to crucial center back Nico Elvedi. First, Gladbach were way too open against Inter when they lost 3-2 at home in their last match. They allowed 1.7 expected goals, and then allowed 4 expected goals against Freiburg.
Even though young star defensive midfielder Denis Zakaria made a start in return from injury, Freiburg did whatever they wanted in attack with usual midfielder Christoph Kramer starting at center back for Gladbach.
Under normal circumstances, a team that would need a draw to get through might play more conservatively, but anyone who watches Marco Rose’s side knows that is not how they typically play. Gladbach are one of the best quick strike teams in the world, in the sense that they like to win the ball in midfield and immediately find runners into space in behind.
In the first meeting between these two sides, these tactics worked brilliantly, as Gladbach built a 2-0 lead at home. But they couldn't grind out a win by sitting back as Madrid scored two late goals to steal the point. Rose knows his team can’t sit deep and look to hold off Madrid for 90 minutes.
They’ll need goals, and so far in the Champions League, they’ve scored them for fun. Alasanne Pléa and Marcus Thuram are two of the most in-form attacking players and have combined for 16 goals in the group stage’s five matches.
Real Madrid
The rumors are that if Madrid does not advance from the group stage on Wednesday, manager Zinedine Zidane will be sacked. Real Madrid lost twice to Shakhtar in the group, which is why they are in a precarious position on Wednesday.
However, they will have Sergio Ramos back for this match, which is a major addition to a defense that has struggled and regressed mightily from 2019-20 to this season.
Real Madrid have been the group’s best team according to xG difference, sitting a full goal better than Gladbach for second. They did however concede three first-half goals to Shakhtar and went down 2-0 to Gladbach in the first meeting, which would skew their xG numbers as they were forced to do more attacking from behind.
Madrid should be able to take advantage of Kramer’s inexperience at center back.
Analysis
Without Elvedi and with Real Madrid needing at least a goal to win this game, Madrid will have to come out and play aggressively. I make this line Real Madrid -120, showing that they are slightly overvalued in this spot.
But without Elvedi, I can’t play Gladbach. Also, I’m consistently higher on the Foals than the market.
But I will play over three goals given the issues for the Foals in defense, and the form of their own attack.
The Bet: Over 3 goals (-115)
