After a fairly straight forward matchday one in the Champions League, things are set to heat up in matchday two.
With the group stage of the 2023-'24 campaign, our soccer experts are here to deliver their two favorite bets from the Tuesday and Wednesday slate, featuring Napoli vs. Real Madrid and Newcastle vs. PSG.
If you'd like to see projections for all 16 Champions League matches you can find them here.
| Napoli Odds | +162 |
| Real Madrid Odds | -155 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -143 / -110 |
Napoli has dropped points in three of its opening seven matches in Serie A and has drifted from second favorite to fourth favorite to win the Scudetto, behind Inter, Milan and Juventus. I don't see anything in their underlying numbers to suggest that Napoli is anything more than marginally worse than last year's side, which electrified the Champions League and Serie A.
Victor Osimhen took the leap into Europe's elite strikers at 4.5 shots per 90 and finished with 26 goals in 28.5 matches in Serie A last year. He's maintained that form into this season and has five goals in six 90s and 0.82 xG per 90. He also excelled in Napoli's CL opener with Braga.
The Italian side has conceded a bunch of inopportune goals and conceded six goals from 4.2 xGA. But, they're conceding fewer shots and shots on goal per match than even Jose Mourinho's Roma. They're also allowing the fourth-lowest shot quality in Serie A.
Real Madrid has some real midfield talent advantages in this matchup, but Napoli remains the better defensive outfit by a solid margin. Napoli is a top-two defense in Italy and still has two world class superstars in attack. They shouldn't be underdogs, or even a coin flip, at home. If you were power rating teams in Europe, both Napoli and Real Madrid would be in the same tier.
As a result of that, I'll bet Napoli as a pick'em at home. For all of its Champions League voodoo, Real Madrid has just seven away wins in its past 23 Champions League matches.
Pick: Napoli – Draw No Bet (+100 via bet365)
| Newcastle Odds | +155 |
| PSG Odds | +162 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -143 / +110 |
Things have changed under Luis Enrique with the transfers brought in to move toward his possession-dominant style. With the Spanish National Team, Enrique put a massive amount of emphasis on game control and controlling a large share of the possession. Through four matches, PSG are averaging an absurd 71.6% possession. PSG already have 192 10+ pass sequences in four matches, 91 more than the next-closest team.
As we’ve seen with Enrique’s Spain, if you can press his teams effectively, you can exploit them in transition. Nice did a fantastic job of exploiting them in transition for two goals and forcing a bunch of high turnovers, which led to the first goal. If Nice was able to disrupt their build-up play on the road, then Newcastle should have a fantastic matchup here.
The biggest change with PSG is what they are going to be doing out of possession. While Messi, Neymar and Mbappe were a world class front three, they did very little defensive work. That meant PSG were often defending with seven guys and having to sit in low blocks, which they weren't very effective in when they had to play top sides. So far in Ligue 1, they have a PPDA of 8.0, which is significantly better than last year.
While that is great, it’s also going to play into Newcastle’s hands because it’s going to leave space behind that first line of the press, allowing Newcastle to get forward in a transition opportunity.
Plus, let’s not forget this is Newcastle at St. James Park, where it has only lost three times since the beginning of last year and has a +1.47 xGD per 90 minutes.
I have Newcastle projected as a -104 favorite, so I like the value on them at -108 (Bet365).
