Atlético Madrid vs. Milan Betting Odds, Pick, Prediction: Target Total in Wednesday Champions League

Milan at Atlético Madrid Odds

As well as AC Milan has performed in Serie A this season — the club is tied for first with Napoli thus far — the Rossoneri's return to the Champions League has been a failure.

Milan has just one point from 12 available and while not mathematically eliminated, they'd need wins in each of their last two games against Atlético Madrid and Liverpool while also getting help from some Porto losses. Milan is dealing with a few injuries at the moment but is also expected to play a pretty strong team on Wednesday in Madrid.

While Milan has struggled, Atlético Madrid hasn't been much better. They were fortunate to get a draw with Porto in the opening match, stole three points late against Milan and were outplayed by Liverpool in both legs of their last two matches. Atlético Madrid sits on just four points and will likely need a win and a draw in its final two matches to advance over Porto.

The title defense in Spain hasn't gone that well for Atlético Madrid either, as Los Colchoneros is looking more like the good not great team that it's underlying numbers have suggested they are for more than a year now.

Atlético Madrid Needs Boost in Attack

Atlético Madrid ranks 17th in passescompleted into the penalty area, 21st in shots per 90 and has a well below average xG per shot rate in the Champions League this season. They produced two goals against Liverpool at home in what was their best performance of the season overall, but have been very unimpressive going forward in the other three UCL games.

They did score twice against Milan, but one came late in stoppage time on a penalty and producing 1.5 NPxG after playing up a man for almost an hour is hardly impressive.

In Spain, Los Colchoneros have the ninth best attack overall by expected goals and are seeing a solid dip in production by xG from striker Luis Suarez. They will have Antoine Griezmann back in the side for this game as well, but they've gotten very little production from their secondary attackers this season.

Despite poor attacking form and finishing regression hitting Atlético Madrid this year, the defense remains as good as ever under Diego Simeone. They've been a bit unlucky defensively actually, but continue to have the best defense by box entries, shots allowed and xG allowed in La Liga.

Struggling Milan Facing Difficult Away Test

The attacking numbers on Milan in the Champions League are ugly. They've totaled 2.7 xG in four games, and only Dynamo Kiev, Malmö and Sheriff Tiraspol have produced fewer chances in front of the net. They didn't score a goal of their own in 180 minutes against Porto and managed just 0.7 xG in those two games.

By xG difference, only four teams have been worse than Stefano Pioli's side. But both games against Porto featured much weaker lineups due to injury issues and rotation ahead of the Milan derby. When Milan played against Atlético the first match in Italy, they were dominant the opening 40 minutes of the game and led 1-0.

The injury list remains long for Milan in this game: Fikayo Tomori, Davide Calabria, Mike Maignan, Ante Rebic are all out. Rafael Leão is questionable for this match and it's hard to see Pioli starting him if he's not 100% fit.

Olivier Giroud is expected to start up top along with attacker Brahim Diaz behind him, and while those two are generally underrated going forward, both have struggled of late to produce chances.

Betting Analysis & Pick

At the end of the day, Atlético Madrid is in a must-win spot and the market is reflecting that in the number here. Despite Milan's poor showings across Europe this season, they bossed the first meeting prior to the Kessie red card and were unfortunate not to get at least a point.

The Rossoneri have had their struggles across Europe and have had attack issues even in Italy, but the defense has maintained its solidity. And while Porto is a bad matchup for them, it's not clear that Atlético will be in this game.

I show a small amount of value on Milan to get at least a point, but I'm instead targeting the total. My projections show 2.37 goals in this match and given the injuries mounting for Milan and the generally overrated Atlético Madrid attack, this should be a low-event game.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-100)