Chelsea vs. Real Madrid Odds
| Chelsea Odds | +105 |
| Real Madrid Odds | +260 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100 / -140) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | CBS | Paramount+ | fuboTV |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
In a rematch from last season’s Champions League semifinal round, Chelsea and Real Madrid meet knockout stage once again, with the first leg taking place Wednesday in London.
The Blues advanced past the Spanish giants last year by securing a 2-0 victory in the home leg after picking up a 1-1 draw in Madrid.
Los Blancos have had a much better campaign this season, though, running away with the La Liga title viawith a 12-point lead entering this match. However, I’m not sure the improvements will be enough to get revenge against an in-form Chelsea team.
Chelsea Utterly Dominant in UCL Play
Even with the surprising 4-1 defeat to Brentford this past weekend, Chelsea has been looking like last season’s UCL winner over the last few months.
The Blues have held opponents to an average of just 0.84 expected goals per match, according to fbref.com, over their last 10 games across the UCL and EPL. If you were to remove Saturday's loss, the average would drop to 0.69 overall for the club.
This stretch includes games against Manchester City (0.7 xG), Tottenham (0.4 xG) and Lille (0.5 xG) as well.
Manager Thomas Tuchel knows the right buttons to press to get the best out of his side, and you have to believe he’ll use last weekend as a motivational tool entering the first leg.
Benzema Delivering for Real Madrid
Real Madrid has been one of the most entertaining teams in all of Europe this season, leading the Spanish top flight in non-penalty xG per match (1.62) and shots per game (16.67), plus ranking second in big scoring chances created (54) when it comes to the advanced metrics.
The primary reason has been the play of star striker Karim Benzema, who has 32 goals combined in UCL and La Liga action this season.
The French talisman has played a direct role in 43 goals this campaign, which is good for 57 percent of Madrid’s goal tally in domestic and European play.
In the UCL, Los Blancos topped a group that included Inter Milan, Sheriff Tiraspol and Shakhtar Donetsk before using a second-leg comeback to eliminate Paris Saint-Germain in the previous round.
BJ Cunningham's UCL Projections
Betting Analysis & Pick
Oddsmakers at BetMGM have Chelsea listed as the +105 moneyline favorite for the opening leg and -145 to advance to the semifinal round. Meanwhile, the total for this game is set at 2.5 goals.
I agree with the bookies in believing the Blues will make it past the Spanish giants, but I will be backing them in a different market. That said, my best bet comes via a Single Game Parlay pairing Chelsea to win with the total staying under 4.5 goals at +125 odds.
To start, you have to look at the home and road splits for the teams in this competition. The London club has been dominant at Stamford Bridge in the UCL this season, posting a +6 xGDiff and not allowing a goal in four games.
The Blues have also held their foes to just 0.48 xG per 90 minutes in those fixtures, which has led to the total staying under 4.5 goals in all contests.
Meanwhile, Real Madrid hasn't been the same team away from home, owning a -3.4 xGDiff and a 0.6 xG per match average in road games against similar competition in Paris Saint-Germain and Inter Milan. This includes the loss in France in the first leg of the previous knockout round where Los Blancos only generated 0.1 xG in defeat.
And let's be honest. Neither of those sides is as good defensively as Chelsea has been under Tuchel.
Manager Carlo Ancelotti showed his Italian background in the last round for Real Madrid, putting everyone behind the ball in the away leg in the Round of 16 clash. I think he’ll be looking to do the same thing and the Blues aren't going to make the mistakes PSG did.
I would also back Chelsea to advance to the next round at anything under -125, so shop around for the best number available as I don’t see the favorite losing over two legs.
Everything points to the Blues moving on to the UCL semifinals for another season and I can’t pass up the plus-money value of this parlay.
Pick: Single Game Parlay — Chelsea ML & Total Under 4.5 Goals (+125)
