Real Madrid vs. Chelsea Odds
| Real Madrid Odds | +140 |
| Chelsea Odds | +180 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-135 / -105) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | CBS | Paramount+ | fuboTV |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
After a convincing win in the first leg away from home, Real Madrid returns to the Spanish capital looking to eliminate last year’s Champions League winner Chelsea from the competition in Tuesday's huge quarterfinal-round tie.
Los Blancos, who also have a convincing lead in the La Liga standings, enter the game with a two-goal advantage, which should make them very confident of reaching the semifinals.
Meanwhile, the Blues have a massive uphill climb to make if they plan on turning this around. The last time Chelsea scored more than two away goals in the UCL knockout stages was during the 2008-09 campaign.
Big comebacks have happened in this tournament in recent years, and I do expect the visitors to respond with a better performance in this game.
Can Benzema, Real Madrid Deliver More Magic?
Just when you thought Karim Benzema couldn’t do anymore, he put together another masterclass in the opening leg, notching his second consecutive Champions League hat trick.
The French striker has been sensational this season, scoring 35 goals to go along with 11 assists combined in La Liga and UCL games.
If you look at Madrid’s 85 goals across the two competitions, Benzema has directly played a part in more than 54 percent of them.
One of the very few negatives from the first leg, beyond conceding the lone goal to the Blues, was the yellow card picked up by Brazilian central defender Éder Militão, which means he's suspended for the return fixture.
Chelsea Enters Match Off Blowout EPL Win
Which Chelsea team is going to show up: the one that was outscored by a combined five goals in consecutive defeats to Brentford and Real Madrid or the side that put six goals past Southampton this past weekend?
Manager Thomas Tuchel will be hoping the Premier League performance this past Saturday carries over into this pivotal match.
In the UCL this season, the Blues own a +7.5 xGDiff and averaged 1.77 expected goals per match, according to fbref.com. However, if you remove the wins against Malmö, those totals drop to +2.2 xGDiff and a 1.5 xG per 90 minutes average.
This is a massive week for the London club with this fixture and an FA Cup semifinal at the weekend, so Tuchel needs to have his team firing on all cylinders to have a chance to secure a trophy this season.
Champions League Projections
Betting Analysis & Pick
When we look at the odds at FanDuel, Real Madrid is listed as a moneyline favorite at +145 and to qualify at a big -1300 price. The total is set at 2.5 goals.
I backed the Blues in the first game and I think they hold the betting value in this leg as well. For this reason, my best bet is to play Chelsea via the Draw No Bet wager at +104 odds. Keep an eye on these Draw No Bet odds at shops like BetMGM and PointsBet as well for the best price before kickoff in Madrid.
If we go back to the first game, Madrid only won the xG battle by a difference of +0.7, which really isn't much at all considering the third goal was a gift from a Chelsea mistake.
Tuchel’s side also came into that match at this similar price to win the game. So, we're seeing a really big adjustment to the price based on the ending of the first game and the changing location of the fixture.
Meanwhile, Militão missing this game for Los Blancos is going to be a huge miss, with Nacho likely to take his place. If you look at the games where Nacho has started at center back, Madrid has allowed 1.39 xG per game and only secured a clean sheet in two of those 11 matches across all competitions. He now has to step in against a team that has averaged 1.69 xG per 90 minutes and posted a +13.2 xGDiff away from home in the EPL this campaign.
I’m going down with the ship, but if you’re going to give me this play at plus money, I have to believe the Blues avoid a second consecutive defeat at the very least.
Pick: Chelsea — Draw No Bet (+104)
