AC Milan vs. Porto Betting Odds, Pick, Prediction: Portuguese Side Can Keep it Close

AC Milan vs. Porto Odds

Despite all of AC Milan's success in Serie A, it hasn't translated into the Champions League. The Rossoneri sit tied atop the Italian top flight with 31 out of a possible 33 points, but they've lost all three of their UCL matches ahead of the easiest (on paper) tie in Wednesday's group-stage contests.

Milan hosts Porto in the reverse fixture of Porto's dominant 1-0 win in Portugal two weeks ago. Porto won the shots battle by a 21-4 margin, won the expected-goals battle by a 1.3-0.1 margin and hit the woodwork on multiple occasions.

The Rossoneri need a win if they want any chance of advancing to the Europa League or UCL knockouts, while Porto is now in a close battle with Atlético Madrid for second place in the group that is likely to come down to the final day of this stage.

Milan is bolstered by the return of Zlatan Ibrahimovic to lead the line, but the attack has been struggling of late to produce chances and goals from open play. Porto's study defense away from home creates value on the Dragões to take at least a point.

Ibrahimovic Hoping to Lead AC Milan Line

Milan's 1-0 win against Torino and 2-1 victory against Roma in Serie A last week helped them keep pace with Napoli at the top of the standings. Milan have now won seven in a row in Italy, but haven't looked nearly as impressive of late as they did early in the season.

Just going through their results: Milan needed an own goal and a penalty to come from 2-0 down to beat Verona. They benefitted from two red cards by Bologna and beat them 4-2 despite just 0.9 xG created. Milan beat Torino 1-0 on a set piece goal and little else, then won at Roma with a 25-yard free kick and a penalty.

The attack has been trending downward for weeks now and I'm not convinced Ibrahimovic is going to solve all of the issues, especially against the excellent low block defense that Porto plays with great discipline. The last six Milan goals have come from set pieces, penalties or already up by one or two players due to red cards.

They're excellent in transition, especially players like Rafael Leão, one of the best dribblers in Serie A. However, they're much less effective when the game slows down and they're forced to break down a low block.

Porto Looking for Rebound Performance

Porto's nightmare 5-1 defeat to Liverpool at home that is deflating their numbers was played without their two best center backs in Pepe and Chancel Mbemba. The Dragões conceded just 0.1 xGA to Milan and 0.3 xGA to Atlético Madrid, with the latter coming away from home.

Porto's defense has been consistently underrated in Europe across the last few seasons. They held Chelsea under 1 non-penalty xGF in each of their UCL quarterfinal matchups. Porto bounced Juventus from the competition, in part because of its stellar defense in the first leg.

The Dragões' defense is always excellent in Portugal, but also conceded just three goals in six group matches last year (including five clean sheets). The ability to congest the middle of the pitch should force Milan to shunt most of its creativity to the wide areas, where they're likely to send in crosses into Ibrahimovic for most of their attack.

Porto has excellent cross defending and aerial duel numbers across its last 10-plus UCL matches.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

My projection puts Milan at +140 to take all three points and Porto at -140 to grab a result away from home. I backed Porto at home in a toss-up line at home two weeks and like them yet again, as the market continues to overvalue AC Milan. The FiveThirtyEight SPI ratings are even more bullish on the Dragoes, projecting this game as a true toss-up.

Milan has some attacking regression coming as a team that has 25 goals from 19 xG for the year in Serie A and has struggled to create chances in the UCL outside of a five minute flurry against Liverpool in the first leg match.

With Milan's upcoming derby against fierce rivals Inter Milan, there's a chance that manager Stefan Pioli rotates his squad to focus on Serie A with the UCL out of reach now.

Porto's sturdy defense (against everyone except Liverpool, apparently) will make it difficult for Milan and allow them to get at least a point away from home. Anything -125 odds or better is worth a play.

Pick: Porto +0.5 (-125 or better)