It was another wild set of Champions League matches on Tuesday's card, with several heavy favorites (Liverpool, for example) earning unsurprising wins.
However, we had one big upset take place in Spain's capital. Sheriff Tiraspol of the Moldovan National Division pulled off a shocking 2-1 victory over global juggernaut Real Madrid to move atop Group D in the competition.
With the first half of this week's UCL fixtures in the book, we turn to the latest octet for our best bets on Wednesday's intriguing docket.
Soccer analysts Jeremy Pond and Brett Pund each have a favorite pick on the slate, with the plays coming from the RB Salzburg vs. Lille and Wolfsburg vs. Sevilla matchups.
Let's take a look at their top betting angles and see where they've found value.
Champions League Best Bets
RB Salzburg vs. Lille Odds
| RB Salzburg Odds | -105 |
| Lille Odds | +300 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-120 / +100) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ | fuboTV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Jeremy Pond: RB Salzburg and Lille are in dire need of a win after settling for draws in their opening group-stage matches. Now, both expect to walk away with three points and make a statement heading into international break.
Salzburg has been utterly dominant thus far, going unbeaten through 12 fixtures, including 11 victories, across all competitions. The Red Bulls, who are atop the Austrian Bundesliga with a perfect 9-0-0 record, have scored at least two goals in eight of their contests overall.
That lone blemish came in a draw with Sevilla in their first UCL game, but the club had to have been disappointed after holding a 3.0-1.8 edge in expected goals in the 1-1 stalemate.
As for Lille, the reigning Ligue 1 champion has been anything but great to start its domestic campaign. Les Dogues managed just one win its first seven fixtures, but has since collected back-to-back victories by identical 2-1 scorelines. The Lille defense has been pretty poor, though, as it has conceded at least one goal in eight of its nine affairs.
For those reasons, I'm taking a shot on a Single Game parlay with both teams to score and the total over 2.5 goals at +105 odds via DraftKings as my top selection. I just don't see either side holding back in the hunt for three points.
Pond's Pick: Single Game Parlay: Both Teams To Score — Yes & Total Over 2.5 Goals (+105)
Wolfsburg vs. Sevilla Odds
| Wolfsburg Odds | +195 |
| Sevilla Odds | +155 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+105/ -130) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ | fuboTV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Brett Pund: When you have two strong defensive teams and a top striker suspended, it makes the total of under 2.5 goals (-130) in the Wolfsburg vs. Sevilla match my best bet on the slate.
Sevilla will be without key striker Youssef En-Nesyri, who led the team in goals last season, due to suspension from his red card in the club's opening UCL contest.
Then, you look at how well these teams have performed defensively this season. Wolfsburg ranks third in the Bundesliga in goals conceded (five) and xGA (5.8), according to fbref.com. The away side holds the best defensive record in La Liga, with only two goals against and a .683 xGA per game record.
In the 16 combined contests these teams have played in all competitions, the same bet of under 2.5 goals has cashed in 11 of those fixtures.
The final point I’ll bring up is the combined xG totals over the last five matches for both clubs. Wolfsburg’s fixtures have averaged a combined 2.08 xG, while Sevilla’s games have been lower at 1.884 xG in the category.
That said, this meeting sets up to be a low-scoring affair between evenly-matched sides on German soil.
Pund's Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-130)
