Porto vs. Manchester City Odds
| Portoodds | +480 [BET NOW] |
| Manchester City odds | -162 [BET NOW] |
| Draw | +285 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-148/+120) [BET NOW] |
| Time | Tuesday, 3:00 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | CBS All-Access |
Odds as of Monday at 4 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Both Manchester City and Porto have officially punched their tickets to the knockout stage. With a win, Manchester City can clinch the top spot in Group C, while Porto can tie the Cityzens on points atop the group.
Manchester City beat the Portuguese champions, 3-1, at the Etihad back in October, but since then, both teams have not lost in group play. In fact, neither team conceded a goal against Olympiacos and Marseille over their last three matches.
Can Porto pull off the upset and tie Manchester City on points atop the group? Or will the English giants assert their dominance?
Porto
Porto's defense is one of the best outside of the major five leagues in Europe. So far in Primeira Liga play this season, it's allowing 1.05 xG per match and allowed 0.74 xG per match last season. Despite giving up three goals to Manchester City the first time around, Porto only allowed only 1.53 xG.
Porto also has talent going forward in the form of wingers Jesus Corona and Felipe Anderson. Those two provide enough pace and ability on the ball to give Manchester City's wing-backs some difficulties.
Based on the UEFA Coefficients, Portugal has the sixth-best league in Europe, so Porto's defensive record is no fluke. Although Manchester City dominated it the first time around, I think Porto has the talent and the defense to keep it in this match the second time around.
Manchester City
Manchester City comes into this match after it was finally able to get back on track in the Premier League, beating Burnley 5-0 over the weekend. The Cityzens have struggled in Premier League play, as they are currently sitting in 10th place.
The biggest issue for Manchester City has been its offense not being as dominant as it has been over the past two years. In the last two seasons, Manchester City has averaged over 2.45 xG per match, but this season it's averaging only 1.63 in Premier League play. In fact, even though it's a perfect 4-0-0 in Champions League play, it's only averaged 1.97 xG per match against weak competition.
This match doesn't mean much to Manchester City, so I would expect it to rest a few of its key players since its main focus should be on the Premier League right now.
Projections and Pick
With this match having very little meaning, I think we are going to see a low-scoring affair. When these two teams met last, only 1.04 xG were generated from non-penalty situations. I have only 2.33 xG projected for this match, so I think there's some value on under 2.5 goals at +120.
Pick: Under 2.5 (+120)
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