RB Leipzig vs. PSG Odds
| RB Leipzig Odds | +175 |
| PSG Odds | +145 |
| Draw | +270 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+135/ -170) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 4 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
After a thrilling 3-2 comeback win for Paris Saint-Germain, it will have to meet RB Leipzig again Wednesday in a Champions League reverse fixture.
The duo come into the fourth matchweek in far different positions, with PSG topping the group ahead of Manchester City via seven points and RB Leipzig sitting at the bottom of the group with zero points.
If the Red Bulls aren't able to get any points from this contest, they will be mathematically eliminated from UCL play if the Cityzens are able to get a point or more against Club Brugge.
On the other side of the equation, PSG is at risk of falling behind Manchester City for the top spot in the group if it isn't able to secure three points.
So, which domino will fall in this pivotal Champions League tie?
RB Leipzig Rightfully Struggling to Find Footing
There are times when results don't tell the full story of a team's performance in a single-game setting or over the course of a competition, but that isn't the case with Leipzig.
The German side has little to complain about in each of its group-stage matches, including the comeback defeat against the Parisians. In that game, Leipzig lost the expected-goals battle by a 3.7-2.0 margin and the same has been true for the first two losses to Brugge and Manchester City.
Against Brugge, Leipzig lost the xG competition by a 1.7-1.1 difference and against City the difference was 2.1-0.6 xG overall. Expected goals typically do a good job of outlining how a team will progress in the long term due to chance creation and concession, but Leipzig hasn't been able to overcome the imbalance in each of their UCL games.
Leipzig's poor form has translated to the Bundesliga, where it's only eighth in the table and three points out of a future UCL position. Leipzig will need to turn a massive corner in a hurry or it will be in danger of its season ending in a very poor position.
PSG in Key Group Battle With Manchester City
Though it might not seem like a big deal, finishing first or second in a Champions League group could be a major factor in a team's progression through the knockout rounds.
This is because second-place teams from each group are pitted against first-place teams in the round of 16 by random draw (excluding opponents from the same league). If PSG was to top its group, it could likely avoid teams such as Liverpool, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and RB Salzburg.
As such, PSG needs to worry not only about its status as a qualifier for the knockout rounds, but also what position it qualifies in. Currently, the Parisians sit in the top spot of the group and a point ahead of Manchester City. Club Brugge trails the French side by three points, but it has a key fixture with Manchester City in these latest fixtures.
PSG has been a touch fortunate in the group stage to this point, particularly in its 2-0 victory against City in the second matchweek. The Cityzens held a 1.9-0.8 xG edge in that match. Nonetheless, this is a results-driven business and another three-point outing would be vital for the Parisians.
The French powerhouse will have to do so without Lionel Messi, who was the catalyst for the team's comeback two weeks ago. Messi is nursing a hamstring injury that will prevent him from being named in the squad.
Betting Analysis & Pick
This is a do-or-die fixture for Leipzig, but I don't think the enormous pressure will push its performance forward.
The reality is Leipzig simply hasn't been able to perform in the Champions League thus far. Results haven't been there and the Red Bulls have no one to blame but themselves.
The Parisians are in a position where three points would be a massive get as well, so the intensity should be there from them. Messi won't be there, but Kylian Mbappé, Neymar and Ángel Di María all project to be in the lineup for the dangerous PSG attack.
The Parisians will also be without Sergio Ramos, but a projected back line of Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos, Presnel Kimpembe and Nuno Mendes is still strong and PSG leads Ligue 1 in road form in terms of xG, so that doesn't provide a concern.
That said, the value resides with PSG in this contest, as it's only priced as a slight favorite.
Pick: PSG — Draw No Bet (-125)
