Real Madrid vs. Shakhtar Odds
| Real Madrid Odds | -500 |
| Shakhtar Odds | +1200 |
| Draw | +650 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+125 / -155) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 1:45 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds via DraftKings, updated Wednesday morning. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Group D of the Champions League is where my focus is this week, with Real Madrid welcoming Shakhtar Donetsk on Wednesday to the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium for Matchday 4.
In the previous tie between the two clubs a few weeks ago, Madrid cruised to an easy 5-0 victory in Ukraine thanks to goals from Vinicius Júnior, Karim Benzema and Rodrygo.
It was a bit of revenge for Los Blancos as Shakhtar won both fixtures between the two clubs in the Champions League last season.
Teams have been able to take points off of Real Madrid in the capital this season, but the home side may be playing too well to go against in this one.
Real's Home Form in Question
The return of Carlo Ancelotti has brought great form to Real Madrid early in the campaign, with his team leading La Liga in goals scored (26) and ranking highly in expected goals (xG) at 17.1 and big scoring chances created (20) according to fbref.com.
You only have to look as far as French striker Benzema as to a good reason for the metrics above as he’s already chipped in with 11 goals and seven assists in all competitions.
The other key figure at Madrid this season has been the growth from Vinicius Júnior, who has tallied nine goals and three assists.
One thing on the minds of the Los Blancos is how to improve on the form at home, where they’ve fallen to draws against Osasuna and Villarreal to go with the surprising loss to Moldovan champion Sheriff.
From a defensive standpoint, Real Madrid have ranked toward the middle of the pack in the Spanish league in expected goals against (14) and big chances surrendered (14), which suggests there could be areas for the visitors to exploit.
Shakhtar Need Result in Madrid
It hasn’t been a great start to the group stages for Shakhtar, who are just one of three teams in the competition so far to not score through three group matches.
The advanced numbers also don’t bode well for the Ukrainian side. If you look at the three matches from the group stages and the two in the qualifying round against Monaco, Shakhtar have posted a -4.6 xG difference and only won the xG battle in one contest.
In its domestic campaign, Roberto De Zerbi’s squad is in second place with 32 points and has a goal difference of +28.
Brazilian midfielder Tetê and striker Lassina Franck Traoré both have six goals to lead the team in the Ukrainian Premier League.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Following the lopsided affair when the two teams last met, Real Madrid enter the return fixture as -450 favorites on the moneyline, and the total for the match is set at three.
The total is where I’m focusing my attention towards, with the Over 3 goals at -130 being my best bet for this match.
Let’s start with how the two teams have done against this number recently. In their last eight matches in all competitions, the over three goals has cashed in five Shakhtar fixtures.
For Madrid, only four games from the 14 total in all competitions have finished under the three-goal mark.
Even the history of the match up favors the over as the previous five meetings between the two teams have seen an average of 4.6 goals per game.
This fixture has goals written all over it, and I think that continues on Wednesday night.
Pick: Total Goals Over 3 (-130)
