Sevilla vs. Lille Odds
| Sevilla Odds | -180 |
| Lille Odds | +500 |
| Draw | +295 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+115 / -135) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 4 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds via DraftKings and updated Tuesday morning. Get live soccer odds here. | |
Favorites won 15 of the 16 matches in the last round of the Champions League two weeks ago. The only favorite who didn't win was Sevilla, who tied 0-0 in France against Lille in the first of two consecutive matches against Les Dogues.
It's rematch week in the Champions League, so all of the home teams from two weeks ago hit the road to play the second leg of a home-and-home. Lille has to go to Sevilla and is in desperate need of points after two draws and a loss to begin the group stage.
Sevilla hasn't been much better, but the Spanish side is second in the group after three consecutive draws. A win would put Sevilla back in contention to win the competitive group, while a loss on Tuesday could see them heading back to the Europa League again.
Despite the defensive and tactical battle in the first leg that resulted in few chances, the reverse fixture should open up more and I show value on both teams to score in this match.
Sevilla has Been Fortunate in Their Own Third
Sevilla may have the second best defense in Spain by expected goals against, but it has been leaking goals of late. The defense allowed 1.0 xGA to Celta Vigo, 1.8 to Levante, 1.9 to Mallorca and 0.5 to Osasuna. Sevilla surrendered the top spot in the defensive rankings in Spain and is due for some more defensive regression.
Sevilla has only conceded seven goals from 9.4 xGA in Spain and two goals from 4.9 xGA in the Champions League. A lot of that came from penalties against Salzburg, but the Sevilla defense is running hot defensively given the quality of chances it has conceded.
Lille isn't a potent attack by any stretch, but it can attack direct through the middle of the park and cause problems for this Sevilla defense. The slower the tempo, the more it benefits Sevilla's patient, slow build-up play and ball progression. Lille are likely to be more aggressive and go for a goal away from home, which should leave Les Dogues more vulnerable to crosses.
If Lille has fewer players behind the ball, Sevilla can swing in crosses — which it does more than any team in Spain — and create chances through the air. Youssef En-Nesyri didn't play in the game in France two weeks ago, and he didn't play against Wolfsburg, either.
The Sevilla attacking numbers are also deflated without him in the lineup, as he's the primary shot-getter, finisher and the target of many of Sevilla's crosses. He averages 0.80 xG + xA per 90 this season and his return should help Sevilla produce enough chances to find a goal.
Lille Defense Suffering From a Regression
Lille's defensive profile is one of the more interesting ones in all of Europe. Its defense overall has taken a step back from last season, despite the fact it concedes very few high quality chances.
Though Lille allows the fewest high quality chances in France, teams have been finishing chances at a much higher rate against Les Dogues than they were last season. Lille has conceded 18 goals from 13.5 xGA in Ligue 1 this year. They've been a bit unlucky in France this year, but Les Dogues also don't have particularly impressive defensive numbers in Ligue 1 either.
Lille ranks seventh in NPxGA allowed, 11th in shots and is 4th in box entries and crosses allowed. For a team known for its excellent defense, none of those numbers are particularly impressive.
The defense is worse than last year and is no longer over-performing its expected numbers. Sevilla's crossing-heavy attack is a way to get at Lille's defense that conceded from a set piece against PSG on Friday and has struggled against set plays this year, as well.
Going forward, Lille has some positive regression coming too. In Ligue 1, Lille has scored just 15 goals from 17.7 xGF. In the Champions League, Les Dogues have produced 2.3 xGF worth of chances and scored only once.
They can attack Sevilla through counterattacks through the middle and create one or two high quality chances to find a goal in this match.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Given where the market closed for the first leg, the market seems to be pricing in the possibility of a more open second game in Seville on Tuesday.
There is positive attacking regression coming for both teams in Champions League play as each should be aiming for a win and Lille's defense isn't quite as dominant as it was last season.
My projection for both teams to score in this match sits at -107, so it's not a huge value play at +100 or better. But, given the circumstances with both sides having to be a bit more aggressive in the reverse fixture, both teams should be able to get on the board in this game. The return of En-Nesyri boosts the Sevilla attack and the defense has some defensive regression coming as well.
Pick: Both Teams to Score at +100 or better
