The Champions League is back for the final time in the group stage with spots in the the round of 16 and Europa League starting to be decided. We have some fantastic fixtures during the final round, including Man United vs Bayern Munich, Newcastle vs AC Milan, Dortmund vs PSG and Atletico Madrid vs Lazio.
If you like to see every tiebreaker scenario for each team, you can find them here
If you'd like to see our projections for every Champions League match, you can find them here.
Champions League Predictions
| Man United Odds | +170 |
| Bayern Munich Odds | +125 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 +110 / -138 |
Get more out of your Champions League action today when you sign up with bet365 bonus code to unlock $365 in bonus bets to use on any market!
Cunningham: This match means absolutely nothing to Bayern Munich, as they’ve already won the group. However, they have been in this position before having nothing to play for on the final day to knock a big club out of this competition.
Last season, they played Inter when neither had anything to play for and beat them 2-0. In 2021 they had a chance to knock Barcelona down to the Europa League and they dominated them 3-0. In 2020, had nothing to play for but beat Lokomotiv Moscow 2-0. In 2019, they were playing Tottenham on the final day, again had nothing to play for as they’d already won the group and dominated them 3-1.
Bayern Munich dominated the previous meeting in Germany, even though the match got a little out of hand at the end. They won 4-3, but won on xG 2.2 to 1.7. 1.1 of Manchester United’s expected goals came in the final 10 minutes when they were already behind by two goals.
Here is the problem with Manchester United. Erik Ten Hag is trying to implement a fluid build up system that changes given the defensive structure they are facing. With all of the injuries they have, they are not good enough in build up, which means they often just send the ball long and end up in a transition match with their opponent.
They have to win this match to get to the round of 16, which means they have to be extremely aggressive with their pressing out of possession. That's an incredibly dangerous game to play against Bayern Munich. In the first meeting, Bayern had a build up completion percentage of 90.9% and Manchester United had a PPDA of 15.7.
I have Bayern Munich projected as a +105 road favorite, so I like the value on them on the moneyline at +130
Pick: Bayern Munich ML (+130 via Caesars)
| Newcastle Odds | -120 |
| AC Milan Odds | +280 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +107 |
Both of these clubs' defensive metrics have fallen off a cliff in the last month. With the exception of their home match against Manchester United, Newcastle have conceded at least one expected goal in each of their seven matches since the injury crisis began at the club. Now that the Magpies are playing without Nick Pope, Sven Botman and Dan Burn, the replacements have led to significant regression defensively.
In five matches in the Champions League this year, Newcastle have allowed 10.4 xGA in total.The Magpies are pretty healthy in attack and still creating chances at a solid clip overall going forward. They're sure to get opportunities on the break to attack forward at home here since both clubs have to win this match to have any chance of advancing to the knockout stage. Milan will have top attacking player Rafael Leao back in the lineup for this match after he returned to training, and few players in the world are more valuable to their club than Leao is to this Milan side.
Milan had solid defensive numbers in the past because they could play extremely passively, not press and not commit many numbers forward. As they've had to be more aggressive in the Champions League because of situation and in tactics without Leao, the mediocrity of the defense has gotten exposed. Milan have conceded at least 1.3 xGA in nine of their last 10 matches.
The market is too high on these defenses right now and both teams have to go for it aggressively. Over 2.5 goals is priced too low here.
