The Champions League is back for match week five with spots in the round of 16 and Europa League starting to be decided. We have some fantastic fixtures during this round, including Real Madrid vs Napoli, AC Milan vs Dortmund, PSG vs Newcastle and and Manchester City vs. RB Leipzig.
If you'd like to see our projections for every Champions League match, you can find them here.
Young Boys vs Red Star Belgrade
Red Star are a team that can hit you pretty effectively and quickly in transition, which Young Boys found out the hard way last time around. Belgrade constantly ere making runs off the last line of defense with Osman Bukari and Cherif Ndiaye.
Belgrade have been dominant domestically this season and continuing to put up some of the most absurd expected goals numbers in Europe. Through about half of the Serbian SuperLiga’s season they are averaging 2.63 xG per 90 minutes, while only allowing 1.02 xG.
Young Boys will typically play out of a 4-4-2 diamond, which is designed to clog up the middle of the pitch and make it difficult for opponents to create overloads there. The problem with this shape is that because it's now with the wide midfielders playing closer towards the middle of the pitch, it puts a reliance on the fullbacks to defend 1 v 1 out wide. Their 4-4-2 diamond is designed to play in transition and is actually a similar formation that Ole Gunnar Solskjær used to great success with Manchester United for a very long time.
You can get away with that playing in the Swiss Super League, but it was very clear in the first meeting that they were struggling defending in those wide areas.
For whatever reason, Young Boys were playing an incredibly high line against Red Star and should have been punished multiple times, but were saved by offsides or some poor finishing. With them being at home, I expect them to try and control a majority of the possession, so the issues will be once they lose the ball how will they cope with the pace Red Star Belgrade has in transition.
Additionally, Young Boys are over-performing drastically in the Swiss Super League right now, as their goal differential is +1.22 per 90 minutes, but their expected goals differential is just +0.06.
I have Red Star Belgrade projected as a favorite on the road in Switzerland, so I love the value on them +0.5 at -116.
Check out the Action Network's best sportsbook reviews to decide where to bet all of the week's Championship League matches!
Real Madrid vs Napoli
Victor Osimhen came off the bench on Saturday against Atalanta in Serie A and is expected to start for Napoli at Real Madrid on Wednesday. We've seen Real Madrid start slow, especially from a defensive perspective, in these spots before. Real Madrid went to Leipzig last season late in the group stage and conceded a ton of early chances before battling their way back into the match and nearly stealing a point. They conceded an early penalty to Braga two weeks ago, and the squad as a whole is dealing with a medley of injuries that has driven the market toward Napoli in the last week.
Real Madrid have also struggled defensively all season long in Spain and Europe. They've conceded 5.1 xGA in four Champions League matches and 15.2 xGA in 14 league matches, which is fifth overall in La Liga. They don't apply a ton of pressure defending off the ball, which will give Osimhen and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia plenty of opportunities to run at this backline in space. Napoli won't want as much possession under their new manager, but they'll be plenty dangerous on the counter and in transition and are live to score early and expose an overvalued Real Madrid defense.
