The Champions League Round of 16 draw has set up some thrilling matchups. The Madrid derby, Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen, PSG vs. Liverpool and Barcelona vs. Benfica are among the most highly anticipated clashes.
The full tournament bracket is now set, allowing fans to predict potential quarterfinal, semifinal, and final matchups, leading to the grand finale on May 31 in Munich.
With these developments, the Champions League odds have shifted. Let's dive into the latest market trends at Kalshi, which functions more like a stock exchange than a traditional sportsbook.
Real Madrid Back on Top
The most successful club in Champions League history has reclaimed its status as the title favorite. After a crucial playoff victory over Manchester City, Real Madrid has surged back to the top.
Ten days ago, Madrid were sixth in the title odds, with just an 8% chance of winning. Now, they lead the pack with a 24% probability. Their Round of 16 draw pits them against Atlético Madrid.
Barcelona Gains, Liverpool Drops
Barcelona now sits in second place with a 19% chance of winning. After a strong league phase performance, their odds improved once the Round of 16 draw was completed.
Under Hansi Flick, Barça defeated Benfica 4-3 in Portugal during the previous phase and is favored to advance to the quarterfinals. There, they would face the winner of Borussia Dortmund vs. Lille — a relatively favorable matchup on paper.
Liverpool, which was the favorite in this market just 10 days ago, has dropped to third with a 15% probability. Their odds fell by 3% after drawing a tough opponent in PSG.
Arsenal, Bayern Munich and Others
Arsenal also saw a slight dip and now sits at 11%. The Gunners have never won a Champions League title and their path includes a Round of 16 clash against PSV Eindhoven, followed by a potential quarterfinal against the winner of the Madrid derby.
Bayern Munich, meanwhile, faces a challenging all-German battle against Bayer Leverkusen, the reigning Bundesliga champions. Like Arsenal, Bayern holds an 11% chance of lifting the trophy.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
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