The "real" Champions League starts now. After the controversial debut of the new format (no groups and a bloated initial phase), the true competition begins this week with the knockout rounds — the matches that deliver the most dramatic moments of the tournament.
So, which teams have the best Champions League odds? And who will win the Champions League Final?
Let's dig into this market at Kalshi, which operates more like the stock market than a traditional sportsbook, but still presents plenty of value.
Champions League Odds
Under the new format, the top eight teams receive a bye in the playoff round and secure an easier path in the bracket.
The best four teams from the league phase — Liverpool, Barcelona, Arsenal and Inter Milan — are, not coincidentally, listed among the top five in the Kalshi market. However, standouts like Lille (7th) and Aston Villa (8th) are barely getting traction among those trying to predict the champion.
Meanwhile, knockout round mainstays such as Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain, Juventus, Manchester City and AC Milan are gathering support, despite their Champions League struggles this season.
However, their poor start might have put them on a collision course with other giants. The best example is the Real Madrid-Manchester City clash in the upcoming playoff. Although both are among the top 10 in Champions League odds, one will say goodbye to their chances as soon as next week. The winner will then face Atlético de Madrid or Bayer Leverkusen in the Round of 16.
If you want a Champions League sleeper pick, consider Borussia Dortmund. If they get past the dangerous Sporting Lisbon, they would take on one of the less threatening top-eight sides — either Lille or Aston Villa. But since the ultimate goal is to win the trophy, you'd also need confidence in their ability to beat Liverpool or Barcelona in the quarter-finals.
Champions League Bracket
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
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