We saw plenty of drama in the first round of the Champions League season, which sets us up for a great round of fixtures in match week 2. The format is different this year as the group format has been scrapped for a league phase, which leads to more high profile matches like we have this week with Arsenal vs. PSG, Aston Villa vs. Bayern Munich, and RB Leipzig vs. Juventus.
There are 18 matches on the board today and tomorrow, s0 I'm here with my Champions League picks and predictions, including my best bets for soccer picks.
Champions League Picks, Predictions, Best Bets
Click on the link in each pick below to go directly to my analysis on my Champions League predictions and best bets.
- Dortmund vs. Celtic pick: Both Teams to Score
- RB Leipzig vs. Juventus pick: RB Leipzig Team Total Under 1.5
- Benfica vs. Atletico Madrid pick: Benfica – Draw No Bet
Always shop around for the best lines when making your bets by using our live soccer odds page.
Make sure to follow all of our Champions League coverage throughout the season here and on Youtube, and make sure to subscribe to the Wondergoal podcast for episodes all season long. Also if you like to see my projections for every Premier League match you can find them here.
My Dortmund vs. Celtic Pick
- Dortmund vs. Celtic odds: Dortmund -209, Celtic +475, Draw +375
Dortmund were supposed to improve under Nuri Sahin, but so far they are really lucky to have won as many matches as they have. They were outplayed for large stretches by Club Brugge and even fell behind Bochum 2-0 on Friday at home. The core issue is their transition defense, which has been bad for a long time but has gotten even worse this season.
What Dortmund are doing in possession is utilizing a lot of different build up structure with the aim of playing through the middle. One of the more common ones has been a 2-2-1-5, which is not something you see very often, and they have been able to create a high number of chances because they have good strikers and creators. However, when they lose the ball there are acres of space out wide for their opponents to attack them and their current center backs are not elite at covering the ground they are being asked to cover.
In six matches in all competitions, Dortmund have conceded 9.3 expected goals, which isn’t that far off from last season, when they allowed 1.53 xG per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga.
Under Brendan Rogers, Celtic have dominated the Scottish Premier League for the last few years and have put up outstanding underlying numbers, averaging well over two expected goals per 90 minutes. They have been forced to play more direct in the Champions League, which hasn’t really been that effective. However, last season they played Atletico Madrid, Lazio and Feyenoord, who are three teams that are all really good at defending in transition, so they weren’t able to do much. That is going to be much different in this match because if teams like Bochum and Club Brugge can have success exploiting Dortmund on the wings, then Celtic can too.
Dortmund’s matches this season have been incredibly high event and that is not going to change on Tuesday. I have both teams to score projected closer to -230, so I love the value on the current line of -143.
Pick: Both Teams to Score (-145 via Caesars)
My RB Leipzig vs. Juventus Prediction
- RB Leipzig vs. Juventus odds: RB Leipzig +130, Juventus +210, Draw +240
With how good Juventus’ defense has been this season, I am not sure how RB Leipzig get to two goals here.
When are RB Leipzig at their best? When they are playing in transition. But Juventus are not going to let that happen in this match. The defensive principles under Thiago Motta aren’t a whole lot different than they were under Allegri. Juventus aren't pressing teams high really at all and they are favoring a solid defensive structure that is no different than when Motta was at Bologna.
So far this season, Juventus have conceded only one goal in all competitions and it’s no fluke because in Serie A this year, not a single opponent has created over 0.5 expected goals and they have already played Roma and Napoli. Juventus are a very passive team, but they simply do not allow you to play through the middle or really create any high quality chances in the box. RB Leipzig are not the type of team to break down solid defensive structures as they are coming off only creating 0.7 expected goals against Atletico Madrid on the road and have only created over 1.5 expected goals in one of their first five Bundesliga matches.
I have RB Leipzig's team total projected right at one goal and given how good Juventus’ defense has been, I have a really hard time seeing how they are going to put the ball in the back of the net twice.
Pick: RB Leipzig Team Total Under 1.5 (-145 via Caesars)
My Champions League Pick for Benfica vs. Atletico Madrid
- Benfica vs. Atletico Madrid odds: Benfica +200, Atletico Madrid +135, Draw +240
Benfica are back under the management of Bruno Lage and nothing has really changed from his first tenure. He doesn't play an exciting brand of football valuing defensive solidity and a slow build up out of the back. While their offensive numbers haven't been good domestically, the defensive numbers have been, as Benfica are only allowing 0.58 npxG per 90 minutes in the Portuguese Primeira Liga.
Benfica also made a change in their recruitment this year, as Benfica typically are a club that builds up talent through their academy and then sells those players for record proftit. They once again lost some key pieces from last years team, but this year they went for more established players rather than spending on young talent. They brought in Vangelis Pavlidis from AZ Alkmaar after he scored 29 goals in the Eredivisie and Kerem Aktürkoğlu after a great season with Galatasaray in the Turkish Super Lig. That means the attack shouldn't really fall off a ton and they are averaging 1.91 xG per 90 minutes domestically this season.
This about as bad of a spot as you can ask for if you are Atletico Madrid. La Liga has been consistently playing midweek matches to begin the season, so now this will be their sixth match in 17 days and they are coming off a very emotional derby with their inner-city rival Real Madrid. The offensive numbers also haven't been great as of late, as they only have created 2.1 expected goals in their last three matches. They also haven't been that good away from home, as they have a negative expected goal differential in their four away matches.
I have Benfica projected as a home favorite, so I like the value on them draw no bet at +116.
Pick: Benfica – Draw No Bet (+116 via FanDuel)
