Atlético Madrid vs. Man United Odds
| Atlético Madrid Odds | +150 |
| Man United Odds | +205 |
| Draw | +220 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+120 / -150) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | CBS | Paramount+ | fuboTV |
| Odds updated as of Wednesday afternoon via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Atlético Madrid hosts Manchester United on Wednesday in the first leg of their Round of 16 Champions League matchup, which is one of the best pairings of the entire knockout phase so far.
The Spanish side needed a victory in the last game of the group stages to secure its place into the knockout stages, entering the game in fifth in the La Liga table.
Meanwhile, the resurgent Red Devils topped Group F to advance in the competition and recently moved into fourth place in the Premier League after several positive results.
There are storylines all over the field between these teams, so I think we have a solid chance to see plenty of goals adding to the entertainment value.
Atlético Madrid Seeking More Consistency
This hasn't been the typical Atlético side that you see under manager Diego Simeone that's difficult to break down. Simeone’s team has already allowed 34 goals in the domestic campaign, which is more than the 25 the team gave up in all of last season in the Spanish top flight.
However, Atlético was still able to advance from a group that included Liverpool, FC Porto and AC Milan on two wins, a draw and three losses.
In the competition, Simeone’s outfit was able to overcome a -0.06 expected goals difference, according to fbref.com, but I don’t know if that can continue against better opposition in the knockout stages.
Surging Man United Making Noise in EPL
It's hard to look back at how United performed in the group stages because of the change in manager that has happened since then.
Manager Ralf Rangnick has his team starting to pick up results in the EPL, holding an unbeaten run of seven games in the English top flight on four wins and three draws.
While the improvement is great to see, you do have to question if it is down to improvement or the competition. This run has come against six teams in the bottom half of the Premier League table and just one (West Ham United) that was an above-average opponent.
One key area where United will have the advantage will be at goalkeeper, where David de Gea leads the EPL in post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed at +9.4 this season.
Betting Analysis & Pick
When you look at the odds at DraftKings, Atlético is listed as the home favorite for the first leg at +150 on the three-way moneyline, while the Spanish side is also favored to advance at +110 odds.
This is a game of teams producing better attacking metrics as opposed to their defensive numbers, which is why I see goals in this showdown.
That said, my best bet is to play Both Teams to Score at -115 odds. If you are using BetMGM, the pick is written as Number of Teams to Score Regular Time.
If we first start with the home side, the same bet has cashed in four of the last six games in La Liga action. This is also the team that has failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of its last 12 matchups in the Spanish top flight, as well as in five of its six UCL group-stage matches.
One reason for its defensive struggles has been the play of goalkeeper Jan Oblak, who owns the worst post shots xG minus goals allowed record in La Liga at -10.2 this season.
As for United, the Both Teams To Score wager has also gotten to the window in four of its last six games in the Premier league. Meanwhile, the Red Devils have also averaged 2.17 expected goals per 90 minutes in that same stretch.
We all know the history between Simeone and Cristiano Ronaldo in this competition, and you can find Ronaldo at +210 odds as Anytime Scorer for a fun props play in this meeting.
The storylines and history make this the most anticipated pairing in the UCL this week, so I think it should live up to the hype with goals from both sides.
Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-115)
