RB Salzburg vs. Bayern Munich Odds
| RB Salzburg Odds | +600 |
| Bayern Munich Odds | -250 |
| Draw | +425 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ | fuboTV |
| Odds updated Wednesday afternoon via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Group G runner-up Red Bull Salzburg welcomes Group E winner Bayern Munich to Austria on Wednesday for the first leg of their Champions league Round of 16 tie.
The Red Bulls snuck their way into the knockout stage thanks to a home victory against Sevilla last time out, while the Bavarians claimed victory in all six group matches to finish atop its quartet by 10 points.
This marks the second consecutive year these clubs will meet in UCL action. They last faced each other in the 2020-21 group stage, with Bayern winning both matches to cruise to a 9-3 aggregate margin.
RB Salzburg Living From Penalty Spot
The most notable storyline of the group stage for RB Salzburg was its consistent ability to draw penalties.
That contributed to the Austrian outfit posting the 15th-best expected goals per 90 minutes. However, removing the penalties drops it from a 1.56 xG per 90 minutes to only 0.94 NP per 90 minutes, which is the seventh-worst output among all 32 group-stage participants.
However, this is also a Salzburg side that holds a good home record this season. In the group stage, it registered the 10th-best home xGDiff and conceded the seventh-fewest home xGA, per fbref.com.
Additionally, while the opposition is not on Bayern Munich's level, Salzburg is unbeaten at home this season (12 wins; one draw) and has only been held goalless one time.
Further, the Austrian champions posted impressive underlying metrics in its 2020 group-stage meetings with Bayern. It combined to average 2.58 xG per 90 minutes in those meetings, including a 3.34 xG output at Allianz Arena.
Additionally, Salzburg saw big chances galore against Bayern in those contests. Across both games, it generated 10 total big scoring chances, while posting no fewer than four of them in either showdown.
Bayern Munich Offense Beyond Electric
What can be said about this Bayern Munich attack that hasn't already been emphasized?
The 2019 UEFA Champions League winners dominated the group stage largely because of a potent offense. Bayern posted the most big scoring chances in the group round — almost four per game — and tied for first in terms of total xG output (17.1), per fotmob.com.
Its defensive output was equally as impressive with manager Julian Nagelsmann's squad conceding only three goals on 3.7 xGA in the group phase. Perhaps most impressive was Bayern's defensive record away from home, where it combined to allow only 1.6 total xGA in its games.
That said, Bayern's defense has come back down to Earth in its recent Bundesliga fixtures. The league leaders have allowed at least one xG in nine consecutive Bundesliga fixtures, five of which came against bottom-half sides.
However, its offense has continued to perform at a high level. Since the calendar turned to the month of December, Bayern has never posted fewer than 1.7 xG in any match and has had at least two xG in four in a row.
Lastly, although Bayern's defensive struggles against Salzburg have been documented, its attack was firing on all cylinders in the previous head-to-head meetings. All told, Bayern combined for 4.23 xG and six big scoring chances, according to fotmob.com.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Sometimes the public side is the right side, which I expect will be the case for this game.
All the signs point to this matchup featuring a ton of goals and I don't think it's unreasonable to expect five or six of them in Austria. Salzburg has yet to face an opponent on Bayern's level this season, and I personally believe the German outfit is capable of beating this total on its own.
That said, I'm also expecting a good offensive performance from Salzburg and for it to at least get on the scoreboard. Seeing as Bayern's offense struggle of late against much weaker attacks, Salzburg should continue its good scoring record on home soil.
Plus, this version of RB Salzburg is significantly improved on the Starting XI that went up against Bayern in 2020. So, even if Bayern race out to an insurmountable lead, I trust the hosts to potentially grab a garbage-time goal.
For those reasons, back this total to go over 3.5 goals with ease.
Pick: Total Over 3.5 Goals (-110)
